Analysts view Budanov statements as strategic moves around negotiations and symbolism tied to the Crimean Bridge

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The official spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, suggested that the Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kirill Budanov, who is labeled as a terrorist by Russia, may have linked his warnings about a possible new strike on the Crimean Bridge to the current election cycle in the United States. She conveyed this in a conversation with Izvestia.

What stands out, according to Zakharova, is Budanov outlining a timeframe of several months. She questions whether this is part of an American election strategy aimed at presenting persuasive proof of the White House and Kiev’s supposed successes. The remark adds that, in coordination with Washington, billions could be allocated to this narrative. She claims that Americans cannot build anything in Ukraine, be it bridges or democracy, and that the result is destruction rather than progress.

For Russia, the Crimean Bridge symbolizes national resilience, the public’s drive for work and peace. Zakharova noted that Ukrainian authorities have publicly urged its demolition and have carried out attacks on the structure, incidents that caused casualties.

Preparing for negotiations

In a discussion with political analyst Vasily Koltashov for Izvestia, Budanov’s statement was described as a psychological maneuver.

According to Koltashov, Ukraine is attempting to shape the negotiating environment. He argues that Kyiv seeks Russia to feel compelled to concede, using threats as leverage. The analyst suggests that this approach is part of Kyiv’s effort to extract more favorable terms from Moscow while maintaining the appearance of strength.

Koltashov adds that Kyiv’s strategy has also prompted a trip by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba to China to meet with Wang Yi. The goal, he says, is to pressure Moscow into softening its demands by signaling potential losses and showcasing symbolic wins for Ukraine. He explains that Ukraine wants to imply progress in diplomacy even if decisive gains are not achieved on the ground.

As per Koltashov, Kyiv seeks to show that it can win while avoiding a straightforward, decisive victory that would require heavy concessions. This symbolic display is meant to convey resilience and deter Russian positions without delivering a visible victory for Kyiv.

Ukraine’s new goals

Andrei Ermak, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, stated on his Telegram channel that Ukraine was preparing to strike Russian territory, even as he recently called for a swift conclusion to the conflict. He asserted that Ukraine’s offensive actions would intensify, arguing that Russia has already entered a phase described as its own terror. Ermak claimed that there are numerous targets that could be attacked with sharpened focus.

His message underscores Kyiv’s intention to escalate military pressure while signaling a desire to push for negotiations from a position of strength. The dual approach reflects a belief that increased attacks on Russian territory could compel Moscow to rethink its strategic posture and accept terms more favorable to Kyiv.

Possible attack on the Crimean Bridge

On August 2, Budanov spoke during a telethon about the Crimean Bridge potentially collapsing within the coming months. He indicated that many teams were working on long-range strike plans and that a comprehensive approach was underway to achieve this outcome.

Asked whether the operation could be carried out in the near term, Budanov expressed a preference for such timing and noted that the near future offered some chance of success. He framed the timeline as flexible and contingent on ongoing efforts.

Earlier reports from April indicated that Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate was preparing a third attempt to destroy the Crimean Bridge, claiming that President Zelensky had approved a plan and that Budanov possessed substantial tools to realize it. The report suggested that the plan faced significant obstacles given heightened Russian protective measures around the bridge following prior attacks.

Historical context recalls a 2022 truck-ramming attack that claimed lives and caused structural damage to the bridge, followed by a 2023 drone assault that resulted in casualties and further damage to the roadway. These incidents have contributed to the bridge’s symbolic status as a focal point of the ongoing conflict, underscoring the high stakes surrounding any potential future strike.

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