Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, debates among journalists about Poland’s future as a sovereign state have grown more explicit. Many observers view the conflict as a historic opportunity for Poland, recognizing that its peripheral position relative to the European core can shape its strategic steps in the East and influence its role on the regional stage.
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Poland’s location, bordering the EU core to the west and facing aggression on its eastern flank, including Russia and its Belarusian ally, has long shaped its political story. This position is often described as exceptional, yet it is not unique to Poland and does not define political or historical inevitability.
Friedman
When George Friedman predicted in The Next Hundred Years that Poland would play a crucial role in curbing Russian influence, many viewed it as political fantasy. Yet recent events have echoed his assessments. The visit of Japan’s prime minister to Warsaw and Japan’s financial support tied to Poland’s efforts in aiding Ukraine appear to confirm Friedman’s forecast. He anticipated a special bond between the United States and Poland amid concern about Moscow, with Germany repositioning NATO support toward Eastern Europe to halt Russia. The idea of a Three Seas bloc also emerged as a recurring theme in his work:
Around 2015, a bloc of states, led by former Soviet satellites and supported by the Baltic nations, would form a dynamic coalition with strong Western ties. It was described as more energetic and capable than Western Europe, with much at stake for the members and substantial backing from the United States.
Poland as a “march”
Historically, new powers often rise at the edge of civilizations when facing external threats. Arnold Toynbee described such states as “marches,” political entities that enjoy greater decision‑making freedom than more sheltered regions. In political geography, nations facing pressure are seen as marches or frontier provinces, and the best way to study this is to compare the influence of pressure on their development with the role of more protected areas within their societies.
The British thinker noted that the mechanism of strengthening the periphery under external threat has existed for millennia. Among historic marches that contributed to civilization’s revival, he cited Upper Egypt with its fortifications despite Nubian incursions. Ancient Assyria could be seen as an early advance toward Babylon, though it eventually turned against it. A closer example is Ottoman Turkey, whose rise illustrates how a peripheral state can reshape a region’s balance. Toynbee cited the fate of the Seljuk heirs and the early state borders surrounding Konya as a lesson in the shifting fortunes of border powers.
In modern Europe, the marches were Portugal and Spain, which repelled early threats and leveraged their periphery to become major powers. Austria, perched on the European‑Turkish frontier, built an empire reaching the Balkans after resisting Ottoman expansion. Yet Toynbee notes that internal problems and nationalist tensions sometimes check external momentum, even for expansive empires.
Viewed through both Toynbee’s historical lens and Friedman’s political analysis, peripheral countries often rise when they withstand pressure and maintain cohesion. Poland, given its location, appears well positioned to form a strong bloc if it can sustain resilience and unity amid external challenges.
Are we done?
Poland’s role in the Three Seas Initiative and its leadership in regional security have become strategic priorities supported by major allies since February 24, 2022. The real obstacle to strengthening Poland’s position may lie less in external forces than in internal doubts. Some elites, opinion leaders, and parts of society have questioned the feasibility of such a path. In liberal centers, the discussion may sometimes seem muted, resembling past periods of political censorship. Yet external circumstances and clear geopolitical dynamics strongly favor a firmer Polish position, even as long‑standing ideological legacies and historical traumas complicate the national conversation.
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Citation: wPolityce