According to the survey conducted by Gesop for the Iberian Press newspapers in the Community of Valencia (INFORMACIÓN, Levante-EMV and Mediterráneo), the PPCV will benefit greatly from the collapse of Ciudadanos in the next regional elections to be held in May 2023. The poll paints a scenario where the traditional parties once again gain strength over the alternative parties after years of escaping votes towards the periphery. The popular ones would capture almost one out of every four votes going into the orange formation, which will stay out of the Cortes in 2019. In addition, Vox will no longer remove support from PP, who not only stopped the bleeding, but also managed to turn the situation around and devour the ground against an already slowed far right.
In the block on the left, a PSPV is perceived to be in good condition despite wear and tear from inflation. Between Ximo Puig’s partners Compromís and Unides Podem (where the Socialists will take the five seats to win), there are more options to fish from the remnants of Cs. For its part, the coalition records the highest loyalty rate among itself, while a certain volatility is detected in purple voters. However, the most relevant vote transfers remain within the blocks themselves.
The big cake in question is Cs’ cake. His breakup would leave almost 500,000 votes in the air. Only 11.8% of these supports will retain the least loyalty. Almost 60% of their followers have not yet decided whom to support, but the trend leaves no doubt: the exit is towards PP. 22.2% of the orange votes would go to popular votes, much higher than those who would migrate to PSPV (5.5%) or Vox (2.6%). This plunder is the basis for Carlos Mazón’s growth, with 13.3% of votes returning from Vox to PP and a recovery of 8% of voters who abstained in 2019.
To Ximo Puig, for his part, the reef opens to the left. The five seats that the socialists will win come from the members themselves. That is, from the left of PSPV. This would allow a third Botànic to be reissued with even more power from the socialists within the trio.
Thus, Puig would fish Good portion of votes from Compromís and Unides Podem, on the contrary, there would be almost no transfer of ballots. PSPV is presented as a leak-free entity: It would have had more than half the support (the highest loyalty after Vox) four years ago, and only 10% of its 2019 voters would now be considering changing their options. Along with the PP, it is the vote with the biggest leak, as the vast majority of their voters will now hesitate between backing them up or staying at home.
While a third of its voters were still undecided, Compromís would resist by its relative solvency, tying up half the support of the last autonomous ones. Here, Joan Baldoví’s candidacy may be the key that could reactivate Valencian bases and was not fully included in the poll.
There is more doubt with the Unides Podem showing the second worst loyalty data (38.6%) after cs. The far right, on the other hand, holds 57% of the vote, and despite a significant flight to the PP, it is causing less skepticism from the voters.
Compromise and Podem, two mismatched constituencies
One of the most striking findings of the vote transfer study is the incompatibility between the voters of Compromís and Unides Podem, two entities that are close to each other on paper and are actually exploring possible alliances to attend the meeting together. It has lost Sumar’s umbrella, Yolanda Díaz’s platform to rally forces to the left of the Socialists, but that will not reach regional powers either. According to the Gesop poll, only 5% of the voters of either of these two formations will exchange votes in 2019: 4.1% plan to move from Unides Podem to Compromís, whereas only 0.9% of party voters think otherwise . In fact, both Valencians and purples would see better support for the PSPV, a possibility that confuses 10% of each party’s electorate. Socialists, on the other hand, do not think much of changing the course of the left.