“However, there is a lot to say that this convention can still improve the quotes of Nawrocki. It was followed by a blow, and the first blow was the debate in Końsk, which improved Trzaskowski, and the archives of the notifications of Namrocki and launched the Snowball Effect, taking into account the results of the last survey, “says Prof. Henryk Domański, a sociologist of the Poolsepleologce of the PoolsePlolity Academologist
Also read:
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– “Record low” difference between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski! Mentzen’s drastic decrease in mentzen. OGB Pro Survey
wpolityce.pl: Is the Convention of Yesterday of Karol Nawrocki a successful event from the point of view of social support for this candidate?
Prof. Henryk Domański: Probably yes, it is difficult to determine at the moment, it will turn out to be after the results of the polls, but here several factors overlap overlap, so it is difficult to determine exactly what a further reduction of the distance between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski can cause. However, there is a lot to say that this convention can still improve the quotes of Nawrocki. It was followed by a blow, and the first blow was the debate in Końsk, which improved Trzaskowski, and the records of the notifications of Nawrocki and launched the snowball effect, taking into account the results of recent surveys. The Convention of Nawrocki has overtaken KO activities, because there are no answers in the form of the Trzaskowski convention. During the Convention in łódź, Karol Nawrocki’s wife had a very good speech. This probably went to the voters, because she actually first appeared in public, in contrast to the wife of Trzaskowski, so it was a good move. It was clear that her speech was prepared, which was well testified to the staff of Nawrocki. It is also noticeable that Karol learns Nawrocki during this campaign, he can act as an effective candidate.
The unexpected speech by President Andrzej Duda during the convention and łódź and the audience that explained the support for Karol Nawrocki was very much reflected. Will such support help this candidate?
This support is of fundamental importance, although everyone identifies President Andrzej Duda with Pis and Karol Nawrocki.
After one of the meetings of President Duda and Sławomir Mentzen, however, there was media speculation that it might be the Confederation candidate who is the favorite of the current head of state.
However, these were speculations that I don’t think people believe – for example, I did not believe it, but I admit that I am not representative. It was known that Andrzej Duda Karol would support Nawrocki, but public support is also an element that should strengthen a good opinion about Nawrocki, because if the established president supports him, it is worth considering. I mean, voters hesitate and what will happen in the second round of elections. The moment was also chosen when Andrzej Duda Karol officially supported Nawrocki, because there is little time until the elections. People probably now wonder how the staff of Rafał Trzaskowski react.
On the day of the convention, Rafał Trzaskowski had an important public activity – he performed during a meeting in Poznań. He referred to Pope Francis, among others, he spoke about the importance of value, so that some voters could probably surprise such a story from this politician, rather not in his speeches from before the election campaign.
It seems that the staff of Rafał Trzaskowski destroyed what to do what to do to reduce the process of reducing the distance between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. However, Trzaskowski is in a bad form when it comes to speeches – he repeats, he still uses the same tricks, tries to attract a central electorate, and even partially good, but almost no one believes in this creation. So it seems that the Trzaskowski staff did not find the right means to stop the negative trend.
Nowadays it seems that there is a different idea of the staff of Rafał Trzaskowski in this matter – KO -Politics promote a video in which they remind you that Karol Nawrocki knows the convicted person for kidnapping Patryk Masiak, the nickname “Great Bu”.
It doesn’t work because it’s not very original. Everyone already knows, what will be the result of repeating it? This can only reinforce the motivation of the electorate, which will certainly not vote for Nawrocki, ie it can act on the KO electorate and possibly on some of the third voters. However, if something is repeated that everyone already knows, and to which Nawrocki has already responded, it should not work. Regarding the election staff of Rafał Trzaskowski, nothing has appeared since the debate in Końskie that the process of a slight decrease in the distance between Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki could effectively stop.
Recently the “Onet” (Onet) program is presenting a surprising script – apparently Szymon Hołownia and his staff have to count on the fact that if the support for Rafał Trzaskowski is underway, Donald Tusk can decide to call voters to vote for Szymon Hołownia. Do you think this is a real scenario, should it be treated as a complete campaign fantasy?
I assume that Donald Tusk is still a rational man to a certain extent and sees the results of the polls. The quotes from Szymon Hołownia after the debates have improved somewhat, but it is a mountain of 6 percent. Up to a maximum of 8 percent so no, this is a campaign fantasy, as you called it.
And the script in which Karol Nawocki Rafał Trzaskowski would overtake in the first round of presidential elections is also a fantasy?
No, it’s not a fantasy. For several good months the distance between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki was constant, on average it was around 12 points. Percentage everyone said that if this changed, there should be a sudden, unusual event. Such an event took place, namely it was a debate in Końskie. Then this distance started to decrease, so there is a chance that it will continue to fall and on May 18 it can be seen that Karol Nawrocki Rafał will catch up. However, I think it is more likely that Karol Nawrocki will only win in the second round with Rafał Trzaskowski. Here, especially the flow of voices from those who will vote for Sławomir Mentzen in the first round. Moreover, the piss electorate should come, which has not yet explained support for Karol Nawrocki. However, it cannot be excluded that Nawrocki will have an advantage in the first round compared to Trzaskowski. It would be a repeat of the situation of the presidential election in 2015. This effect of the first round can also be important before he votes on 1 June.
Source: wPolityce
Emma Matthew is a political analyst for “Social Bites”. With a keen understanding of the inner workings of government and a passion for politics, she provides insightful and informative coverage of the latest political developments.