the star went out
The week ahead has thrown Italy back into a series of endless parliamentary crises that seem to have ended since world-class economist Mario Draghi took power in February 2021. However, his government was unable to overcome the many partisan differences in Italian politics.
Draghi left because the Five Star Movement, which forms the backbone of the ruling coalition, refused to participate in the Senate confidence vote on the government. This step was perceived as the Movement’s withdrawal from the parliamentary majority. In addition, the right-wing parties “Forward, Italy” and “League” did not participate in the voting. Although the government was given confidence in the voting results, the main power of the cabinet sabotaged the turnout, which led to the collapse.
President Sergio Mattarella accepted Draghi’s resignation for the second time.
As Associate Professor Elena Maslova from MGIMO’s Department of Integration Processes explained to socialbites.ca, the president’s reluctance to accept Draghi’s resignation is explained by the hopes the Italian people have for this person.
“Mario Draghi is one of the few serious politicians perceived outside of Italy. The authority of the country under him in the international arena was determined higher, and the joint trip to Kiev with Emanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz showed that Italy can even compete with France and Germany.
More importantly, Draghi was seen as the guarantor of a valuable expenditure of funds from the EU working for Italy’s economic growth. “He was a crisis manager called to save Italy.
In just one year, Maslova was asked “Who if not Draghi?” in Italian society. He said that there was a question of compromise.
This is also confirmed by opinion polls. Immediately after Draghi announced his decision to resign, more than 50% of Italians expressed his desire to form a new government.
However, according to Elena Alekseenkova, head of the Center for Italian Studies of the European Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, such an outcome of events cannot be expected.
“I think the option to extradite Draghi is extremely slim. Draghi is a businessman, came into politics from the business world and took the head of the government only on the condition that all the main political forces in the country support him and unanimously implement the program considered as a reconstruction and reconstruction plan. . recovery after the pandemic. This reconciliation of political forces was the main condition for Draghi and now it is no more, ”the Italian expert stressed.
Italy awaits early elections, appointed by the president on September 25. According to experts, Draghi will not participate in them.
Who benefits from Draghi’s departure?
Initially, the crisis was initiated by the Five Star Movement, which expressed its distrust of the government. But in this week’s vote in parliament, mistrust of Draghi was also voiced by centre-right parties, which had previously expressed their willingness to work with the government.
Elena Alekseenkova, the point is, right centrists have the most chance at this stage to form a new government.
“The centre-right coalition made up of the League, Brothers of Italy and Forward Italy has every chance. Of these three parties, the Brotherhood of Italy, led by George Meloni, is the most popular – currently over 23% of the vote. “League” – about 15% and “Forward, Italy” – just over 9%. Not so long ago, negotiations between the leaders of these parties indicate that they are considering going to the polls as a coalition – not alone, but as a single bloc.
And of course, this gives them a chance to form a centre-right government. In that case, George Meloni would probably be prime minister.
Despite competing with Matteo Salvini, I think he has much less chance, as evidenced by his rating,” he said.
Elena Maslova of MGIMO notes that other factors also favor Georgie Meloni.
“Now the Italians have a political indifference that has not gone away for the few years that the country has been in a deep crisis. Its citizens are waiting for a magician who will fly by helicopter, save them and solve all problems. Naturally, they want this to happen as soon as possible, but this does not happen, so the Italians in the entire history of recent years have managed to disappoint almost all their politicians. Today, George Meloni is almost the only Italian politician who has not held major government posts, and this contributes to his growth in popularity. “The gender factor also influences, so I think his party can win the upcoming elections,” he said.
What does this mean for Russia?
According to Elena Maslova, “If a coalition of right-wing forces comes to power in Italy, we can expect Rome to be more inclined to dialogue with Moscow.”
The expert noted that the main backbone of the anti-Russian forces in Italy now consists of leftist parties trying to create a dilemma: “If you are with us, you are from Draghi, if you are against us, you are from Putin.”
At the same time, the position of centre-right parties on relations with Russia and the conflict in Ukraine is not as clear as it seems.
For example, “League” leader Matteo Salvini or “Forward, Italy!” based on the statements of the leader of his party. Silvio Berlusconi, both politicians believe that arms supplies to Ukraine in no way bring peace closer, so the parties should be encouraged to negotiate.
The “Brothers of Italy” take a different position – they always voted for the government’s line on this issue, supporting the shipment of weapons to Ukraine. They are also in favor of increasing the military budget of Italy and of the European Union as a whole, aimed at increasing the EU’s role in NATO.
According to Elena Alekseenkova of the European Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, all three parties openly negatively evaluate and condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine and share the Draghi government’s approach to sanctions. The differences emerge only on the gas embargo.
“If a centre-right coalition comes to power, it will not radically change the relationship between Rome and Moscow, because Italy is currently very dependent on the EU economically.
In the winter of the 21st, a reconstruction and development plan was approved, in which Italy was the main beneficiary of European Union funds and received 209 billion euros for economic recovery. Of course, without this financial support, neither the League nor the Brothers of Italy have a chance to get the country out of the economic crisis. Therefore, if we put sanctions on Russia and economic support from the European Union on the scales, I think the choice is pretty obvious. The centre-right coalition will be completely unprepared to give up European support in exchange for trade with Russia,” summarizes Alekseyenkova.