Five months after the invasion began, the Russian offensive has stalled in the Donbas and the country’s authorities have had serious problems mobilizing troops. The further fate of the war will depend, among other things, on how much Ukraine has reserves to launch a counteroffensive, said Rob Lee, a military analyst and veteran of the US Marines.
READ MORE: RELATIONSHIP. 151st day of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Zelensky on the attack on the harbor in Odessa: the occupiers can no longer deceive anyone
Since the beginning of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Russia failed to achieve the main goals of the war, including the overthrow of the government in Kiev, but managed to regain control of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast, Kherson. get and keep. and – after the capture of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk – practically the entire Luhansk region.
The Russian offensive has stalled
According to Robert Lee, an expert at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), the attitude of the Russian troops so far has been much worse than expected, both in terms of an almost “impossible” plan and in the art of warfare.
In an interview with PAP, Lee believes that Russia’s prospects for further progress are limited.
I think it is clear that the offensive is stuck in Donbas. After the Russians took over Severodonetsk and Lisiczańsk, the Ukrainians switched to maintaining the defense line. Russian troops try to attack towards Siewiersk, but so far without much success
– assesses the expert. As he adds, in the current situation, it seems doubtful whether the Russians have won Slavyansk, which is one of the most important points in the battle for Donbass.
There is no doubt that the HIMARS systems played an important role in weakening the Russian offensive, through which the Ukrainians launched attacks on command hubs behind the front line, ammunition depots and logistics elements, forcing the Russians to significantly shift and to extend the supply line
– says Lee.
As he points out, Russian troops are clearly struggling with the problem of the number of soldiers available. They forced Russia to pull troops from the most remote regions, and even ship sailors and advanced volunteers.
Certainly, if we see 40-50 year old reservists at the front, this is not a good sign for Russia
– believes the analyst.
How much power does Ukraine have?
He adds that less is known about the availability of troops on the Ukrainian side, one of the main factors determining the future of the conflict and the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Lee believes Ukrainian troops also suffered heavy casualties, and anecdotal reports indicate that soldiers sent to make up for losses in frontline units were poorly trained.
Much depends on how much electricity Ukraine can still generate and what quality they will be. Russia has an advantage in this regard because it has a reserve training program and can do it on its territory, while for Ukrainians it is much more difficult because they are constantly threatened by missile attacks
– analyzes Lee.
He also stresses that the West’s equipment will also be critical. He estimates that while the HIMARS systems are great at disrupting and disrupting the Russian offensive, they are not enough to conduct an effective counter-offensive, especially in the case of Russians holed up in the south.
It can’t just be HIMARS,; they need to be integrated into a holistic system. Since the Ukrainians are unlikely to be much outnumbered, they will have to rely on firepower; artillery, armored vehicles and tanks count here
says Lee.
According to the former Marine, the supply of Western artillery is one of the key issues.
It is not about the supply itself, but also about their stability and continuity. Because this determines how much ammunition can be used by Ukrainians, and they will need more if they go on the attack
– says the American expert.
of the Criminal Code / PAP
Source: wPolityce