OUR INTERVIEW. Will Tusk’s coalition collapse? Prof. Domański: This will be decided in the second round of the presidential elections

“The best solution for PiS would be to intensify the rivalry between Szymon Hołownia and someone from PO. Then Hołownia would have to lose. The most favorable situation for PiS would be that someone from PiS, let’s say Mateusz Morawiecki, would participate in the second round of the presidential election, and Rafał Trzaskowski or Donald Tusk would face him. Then the voters of Hołownia, who did not feel treated properly, could vote for the PiS candidate. I think the second round will be decisive from the point of view of whether the ruling coalition will continue or not,” says Prof. Henryk Domański, sociologist of the Polish Academy of Sciences, in an interview with wPolityce.pl.

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wPolityce.pl: An article has appeared on the website Wyborcza.biz stating that the current government has not fully fulfilled its promise of 20% increases for public sector employees, there is also the text from “Fakt” that as many as 95 new people have been hired in the Prime Minister’s Office, and there is no mention of the announced downsizing of Donald Tusk’s office. Could news of unfulfilled election promises ultimately lead to a decline in support for the current government?

Prof. Henryk Domański: With election promises, it is known that these promises cannot be fully fulfilled, regardless of who promised what. As for Donald Tusk, he is already used to doing everything when it comes to promises just to get support and probably a large part of the electorate still takes that into account, does not attach any importance to it and does not care that it is settled. What is more interesting, however, is that the government’s economic policy, taking into account the announcements of the Minister of Finance, has for some time now been showing a return to what is generally described as liberal policies, associated with PO. In short, in my opinion, these situations will not have a particular impact on the government’s ratings.

Will the focus on holding predecessors accountable for the entire four years be enough to help the current government win the next parliamentary elections?

The latest United Surveys by IBRiS for “DGP” and RMF FM show that no. In response to the question of what should be the government’s priorities, Poles point to the fight against rising prices [konkretnie 51,4 proc. badanych – przyp. red]., while only 16.4 percent point to the importance of holding the previous government accountable. Therefore, people do not accept the priorities of the current government, but it is known that this does not immediately translate into party preferences, because according to recent polls KO maintains a lead of several percentage points over PiS.

However, there are also worrying reports about higher gas, water and electricity rates. Could these issues affect the ratings of political parties?

Frankly, it matters to people on the lowest wages that it will increase inequality. In the long run, something like this works in PiS’s favor, but for now it won’t work. If PiS pays attention to these issues in three years, it will increase the chances of PiS winning. Whether PiS will be able to form a governing coalition is another matter.

So do you assume that the current government will last until the end of its term?

People are very sensitive to reassuring gestures or statements that everything is being done to reduce the increase in costs to society and so on. I think people think it won’t be that bad.

There is another aspect of the current coalition’s survival until the end of its term: internal disputes. Recently, such cases have occurred in the context of abortion liberalization, especially between the left and the Polish People’s Party.

The issues of abortion or civil unions are not considered by people to be the most important, according to the above-mentioned survey by United Surveys by IBRiS. As far as public opinion is concerned, there will be no change in this regard, but there may be a negative reaction at the leadership level. The coalition was formed on the basis of an agreement between the leaders.

Emotions ran high in this case and there were even attacks on PSL offices.

I suspect that the coalition will hold, but despite everything, things have never been as sharp as in the recent attacks from the left on the Third Way. So it can happen again and again and get worse. Perhaps we are dealing with a certain sequence of cause and effect here.

And could this lead to the collapse of the coalition?

Argument number one reinforces argument number two, and so on. This can be expected to continue, as this latest dispute has already shown some signs of a lack of mutual trust between the coalition partners. I believe that this coalition will last until the presidential elections.

And after these elections?

Much depends on who wins these elections. The best solution for PiS would be to intensify the rivalry between Szymon Hołownia and someone from PO. Then Hołownia would have to lose. The most favorable situation for PiS would be that someone from PiS, let’s say Mateusz Morawiecki, would participate in the second round of the presidential election, and Rafał Trzaskowski or Donald Tusk would face him. Then the voters of Hołownia, who did not feel treated properly, could vote for the PiS candidate. I think that the second round will be decisive from the point of view of whether the ruling coalition will continue or not.

not. ace