A high-level meeting in the USA-EU-Armenia format will be held on April 5 as part of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Brussels. The politician will hold talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and European Commission (EC) president Ursula von der Leyen. The official goal of the event is to deepen cooperation between the parties in various fields.
wink at yourself sureHe said that future dialogue is not directed at third countries and that the main topic will be economic interaction. Armenian side statedIt was stated that the negotiations will be about the development and sustainability of the republic. The meeting will fulfill von der Leyen’s promise to Pashinyan in Granada, Spain, in October 2023 to hold a joint US-EU event in support of Yerevan.
negative background
The preparation of the negotiations caused particular concerns among at least two states (Russia and Azerbaijan). How registered The official representative of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, says that, as they say, such activities of the USA and the EU are aimed only at Moscow:
“Such meetings cause concern for most countries in the region, because they aim not to achieve peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but to further introduce the West’s extremely destructive approaches to the South Caucasus, create new dividing lines there, and put the countries in difficulty. “The region is pursuing an anti-Russian agenda, destroying centuries-old ties with Moscow.”
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov also did not rule out the possibility of holding a joint US-EU-Armenia conference. Maybe It pushes Yerevan to new provocations in the South Caucasus. According to him, countries far from the region are slowing down the resolution process of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.
According to the same time information The topic of the main conversation between Pashinyan, Blinken, von der Leyen and Borrell may not be the economy, but Armenia’s Euro-Atlantic integration, reports the Azerbaijani portal Caliber. Sources say the meeting will focus mainly on defense and security issues, including expansion of military supplies and training programs.
“Yerevan Targets”
Experts interviewed by socialbites.ca have different assessments of the upcoming negotiations. Vadim Mukhanov, Head of IMEMO RAS Caucasus Sector, believes that the US-EU-Armenia meeting is linked to Yerevan’s desire reduce dependence on Russia in military-political and military-technical terms.
“This incident fits within the framework of Armenia’s foreign policy turning away from Russia and towards the West. This remains somewhat bilateral agreements in place and Yerevan remains in blocs dominated by Moscow. However, the Armenian side is taking steps in a different direction. “It is unknown how successful or deep the return will be,” the expert said.
Political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan, is sure that Pashinyan’s trip has many purposes. According to him, he maintains contacts that increase Armenia’s interaction with the West, in this case with the USA and Europe.
“We are talking about programs. development of cooperation, improvement of economic development mechanisms and security-related negotiations. “The last component is especially important for Armenia,” he added.
Political scientist and South Caucasus expert Andrei Areshev admitted that cooperation between the parties has already made significant progress in the field of security, while during the negotiations Blinken and von der Leyen will try to focus on economic aspects:
“The West is trying to create a homogeneous geopolitical space in the South Caucasus. This creates serious difficulties for Russia and Iran. “For now, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has prevented this, but after the events of 2020 and 2023, Yerevan’s shift to the West has become inevitable.”
“Black and white painting doesn’t work”
Pashinyan’s negotiation trip with Blinken and von der Leyen takes place in an environment where relations between Armenia and Russia are deteriorating. The decline began in 2020 after a new round of the Karabakh conflict and was consolidated three years later when Azerbaijan regained control of the entire disputed region.
Therefore, Yerevan criticized the Russian peacekeepers serving in Karabakh for alleged inaction, accused the CSTO of not reacting to Baku’s attacks on the Armenian border, and called dependence on Moscow in the field of security a mistake. The verbal argument was accompanied by actions. Armenia has frozen activities at the CSTO, agreed to ratify the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court despite the organization allowing the “arrest” of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and refused assistance from Russian border guards at Zvartnots airport.
From the point of view of Vadim Mukhanov from IMEMO RAS, it was expected that relations with Armenia would cool down after the events of 2020 and 2023, now the situation is getting worse.
“There is a certain diplomatic conflict between Yerevan and Moscow, the problems are growing. This will not lead to anything good. In the short term, relations between Russia and Armenia will be at a lower level than in the entire post-Soviet period. “It hasn’t fallen that far yet, but neither side has reached the bottom yet,” he added.
Armenian political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan noted that it is still not worth talking about the complete separation of Yerevan from Russia to the West, since it is more of an attempt to diversify its capabilities:
“In the field of security, Armenia is looking for options not only in the West but also outside the post-Soviet space. Recently, Yerevan has been purchasing weapons mainly from India. In the economy, on the contrary, mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia is expanding. The primitive black and white picture does not work in this case – leaving someone, coming to someone. “This is Armenia’s attempt to survive in this new situation, not only for the region, but at least for the entire post-Soviet space.”
In contrast, South Caucasus expert Andrei Areshev reminded that although Armenia has frozen its participation in the CSTO, it is still working with Russia in the EAEU. According to him, this year Yerevan heads the economic organization and this organization imposes certain obligations on it.
“At the end of the year, Armenia will host the heads of state of the EAEU. “Given the estrangement in Russian-Armenian relations and Yerevan’s accession to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, it will be interesting to observe the fulfillment of this obligation.”
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Source: Gazeta
Emma Matthew is a political analyst for “Social Bites”. With a keen understanding of the inner workings of government and a passion for politics, she provides insightful and informative coverage of the latest political developments.