Ukraine has lost its chance to elect a new president in 2024. The next elections were supposed to be held on March 31, but were canceled by the decision of the authorities. The reason was the martial law in force in the country due to the start of Russia’s military operation at the end of February 2022.
The fact that parliamentary elections, as well as presidential elections, were not held triggered discussions about the legitimacy of the authorities and the legality of their decisions. Discussions and accusations, including against Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky, did not yield results, and as a result, Ukraine was deprived of an election campaign in 2024.
This decision did not prevent Ukrainian sociologists from collecting public opinions about possible voting participants and their attitudes towards them. Based on the sum of this data, we can identify approximately nine main candidates who could participate in the vote:
-Current president Vladimir Zelensky
– Valery Zaluzhny, former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Kiev’s new ambassador in London
– Former advisor to the head of office of Ukrainian President Alexey Arestovich
– Deputy and former Chairman of the Rada Dmitry Razumkov
– Fifth President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko
– Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko
— Entertainer and volunteer Sergei Pritula
– Head of the Main Intelligence Department of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kirill Budanov (included in the list of terrorists and extremists of the Russian Federation)
— Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko
For Ukraine, so many candidates are far from the limit. Five years ago, there were 39 names in the first round of voting. In 2014 there were more than 20 applications, and in 2010 – 18.
Popular opinion
The most relevant to the election issue is the March survey of the SOCIS center. According to the research, if the vote is held, the balance will be in Zaluzhny’s favor. Former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces leads with 41.4 percent support. While Zelensky ranks second with 23.7%, Poroshenko is in the top three with 6.4%. Razumkov ranks fourth with 5.6 percent, Pritula ranks fifth with 4.1 percent, Budanov ranks sixth with 3.2 percent, and Tymoshenko ranks seventh with 2.8 percent. Arestovich and Klitschko follow with 1.5% and 0.9% support respectively.
According to the poll, if none of the candidates had received more than 50 percent of the votes, Zaluzhny and Zelensky’s participation in the second round of elections to be held on April 21 would have resulted in victory. Former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 67.5 percent of those surveyed supported the retired general and Ukraine’s new ambassador to the United Kingdom, while 32.5 percent supported the country’s current leader.
In last year’s survey of the rating group, participants gave the victory to Zelensky. In the first round, 47.4 percent of respondents were ready to support the head of state, and 30.7 percent wanted to vote for Zaluzhny. Prytula closed the top three with 4.9%, followed by Poroshenko with 4.6% and Razumkov with 1.9%. Tymoshenko ranked sixth with 1.6%, Klitschko ranked seventh with 1.2%, Arestovich ranked eighth with 0.9%, and Budanov was not taken into account in the rankings. A possible runoff predicted Zelensky’s victory over Zaluzhny by a minimal margin: 42% for the Ukrainian leader and 40% for the new ambassador in London.
If you look at the level of trust of Ukrainians in representatives of the country’s leaders, we can say that Zaluzhny has recently become the absolute leader. According to a February survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has a score of 94%; Only 5% of those surveyed had a negative opinion of the general.
In second place is Budanov, with 66% approval and 19% distrust. Zelensky is in third place; 64 percent of Ukrainians trust him; 35 percent of respondents had the opposite perspective. With the outbreak of hostilities, the rating of the Ukrainian leader rose to 90%, supposedly due to the effect of rallying around the flag (national unity around the head of state), but has been falling steadily since 2023.
As for other potential candidates, only Pritula (61% confidence, 33% negative rating) and Razumkov (35% support, 33% criticism) have positive ratings. Ukrainians have the worst attitude towards Tymoshenko and Arestovich. 82 percent do not trust the former prime minister and 83 percent do not trust the former advisor to the office of the President of Ukraine. Poroshenko’s performance is no better either; 68% of those surveyed do not trust the politician. 45 percent of Ukrainians believe in Klitschko, while 51 percent have the opposite opinion.
failed war
It is worth noting that before the elections were canceled, no politician officially put forward their candidacy, and only Arestovich promised to run. Even Zelensky did not say whether he would participate if elections were held. The leader of the pre-election rating, Zaluzhny, did not show any political ambitions, like Budanov. Poroshenko vowed revenge after the defeat in 2019 but has not confirmed his intentions since the start of the conflict.
Tymoshenko has competed in every presidential election since 2010. Klitschko officially supported the refusal to vote in wartime. Razumkov hinted at presidential plans only before the SVO, and showman Pritula, whom local media predicted would repeat Zelensky’s fate, is raising funds for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and has withdrawn from politics.
Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, told socialbites.ca that, in general, running a campaign in current conditions will actually only benefit the current president. According to him, Zelensky has done a lot to eliminate potential rivals.
“There is no democracy in Ukraine anymore. Even before the start of the SVO, anti-oligarchic laws were adopted in the country, which made it possible to deprive, in fact, any person of their rights. The entire media was under control and now there is a constant campaign from a single point of view. “Under these conditions, if Zelensky wanted to organize an election, he would win,” the expert believes.
From Ofitserov-Belsky’s point of view, no one pursued an active election campaign in Ukraine due to the fact that the presidency had lost its attractiveness due to the risk of becoming the last in the country’s history.
“Zelensky himself would not want to be president and would not have gone to the 2019 elections if he had known how everything would end. It is now in Ukraine’s interest to hold a new vote while it is not yet plunged into complete disaster. However, Zaluzhny has not yet shown himself as a civilian politician. There is respect for him in society, but he is only associated with conflict, which people are starting to tire of. It is unlikely that he will run now, but he may run in the future after training in the UK,” Ofitserov-Belsky said.
Vladimir Bruter, an expert from the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, noted in an interview with socialbites.ca that the participation of a large number of candidates, including Zaluzhny, is hypothetically possible.
“He could challenge Zelensky and beat him. But this is a purely hypothetical idea, because the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not an independent person. Washington makes the decision about Zelensky, and they do not need to hold an election to remove him from office. The United States proceeds from the fact that it no longer needs such a thing. If Washington suddenly needs presidential elections in Ukraine, the conditions will be found quickly. In fact, in Ukraine any piece of wood can be declared a contender, promoted within a month and said there is no alternative,” says Bruter.
What are you thinking?
Source: Gazeta
Emma Matthew is a political analyst for “Social Bites”. With a keen understanding of the inner workings of government and a passion for politics, she provides insightful and informative coverage of the latest political developments.