Yesterday, just six days after the approval of the budget law by the Sejm, despite the fact that it is 700 pages long, the government majority in the Senate adopted it without amendments, meaning that it will not return to the Sejm and go directly for signature shall be submitted to the President of the Republic of Poland.
At the same time, senators from the Law and Justice club in the Senate submitted a request to the Constitutional Court to investigate whether the procedure for adopting the budget bill by the Sejm was in accordance with the Constitution of the Republic of Poland. The idea is to prevent two parliamentarians from the Republic of Poland, Mariusz Kamiński and Maciej Wąsik, from participating in the work on the draft budget, both in parliamentary committees and voting on it in the plenary chamber, due to their arrest. Because in accordance with art. 96 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland, the Sejm consists of 460 deputies, so if only 458 deputies were allowed to work on the draft budget, are there serious doubts whether the draft budget law adopted in this way is in accordance with the Constitution?
The budget is based on the Morawiecki government’s project
Let us remind you that the 2024 budget is largely based on the budget prepared by Prime Minister Morawiecki’s government and submitted to the Sejm at the end of September, but just a month after taking power, the ruling PO-TD-De left coalition has messed up the situation considerably. The budget deficit, among other things, increased by almost PLN 20 billion to PLN 185 billion. Moreover, it appears that another PLN 20 billion was hidden in the budget. Therefore, the deficit of the entire public financial sector is estimated by the banks. sector at almost 6% of GDP, while the government is only 5.1%. Moreover, according to the Minister of Finance, budget revenues should increase by almost PLN 100 billion in 2024 compared to 2023, including tax revenues by as much as PLN 88 billion, which does not seem possible given the economic conditions this year. The increase in tax revenues by PLN 88 billion will consist of an increase in VAT revenues by as much as PLN 62.5 billion, an increase of almost PLN 18 billion in PIT revenues, an increase of more than PLN 4 billion PLN in excise tax revenues and an increase of more than PLN 2.5 billion in corporate tax revenues. . Such a large increase in VAT revenues is extremely unlikely, especially since inflation has fallen significantly to 6.2% in December thanks to the central bank’s restrictive policy and, as the National Bank of Poland predicts, could already go to 3% fall in March (it will probably rise slightly later, but average annual inflation will be much lower than in 2023).
Budget change and cuts – almost certain
In this situation, with the threat of revenues of as much as PLN 682 billion in 2024, we can expect a budget amendment in the second half of this year and consequent cuts in expenditure, especially those for social purposes. perhaps also those intended for national defense. There will be local elections in April and European Parliament elections in early June, so until then those in power will carry out budget expenditures in accordance with the budget plan, even if it will be necessary to borrow additional money due to a lack of tax revenues. Members of the ruling coalition spoke of the need to amend the budget during the second reading of the budget bill, although they did not announce cuts, but there is no doubt that they will have to be made.
Moreover, the budget included deep cuts to the budgets of institutions that this coalition ‘doesn’t like’ and which it is therefore ‘financially starving’: the Institute of National Remembrance – the budget was cut by about PLN 70 million, the National Broadcasting Council – a cut of almost PLN 49 million, the Supreme Court – reduces expenditure by PLN 26.5 million. There are also serious doubts about the implementation of national defense spending. The PLN 118 billion of funds budgeted for this purpose will most likely be spent, but the PLN 40 billion from the Armed Forces Modernization Fund will most likely not be spent, as no plan has yet been drawn up to release these funds from the market, let alone a purchasing plan if weapons are not purchased off the shelf.
Although the President is obliged to sign the budget law within seven days from the moment of its submission to his Chancellery, due to serious doubts about the process of its adoption, he can also submit it to the Constitutional Court. If these doubts were also shared by the Constitutional Court, the President could dissolve Parliament within fourteen days and order new elections, but it is difficult to say whether he will decide to do so in this complicated situation caused by subsequent illegal actions of the new government. majority?
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Source: wPolityce