With the arrival of 2024, election campaigns in the United States are gradually gaining momentum. A series of state primaries begin in January and culminate with the confirmation of Republican and Democratic presidential candidates at the summer conventions. There are many rivals on both sides, but the key players are thought to be two politicians, as they were four years ago: former US President Donald Trump and his successor Joe Biden.
The first is to try to regain the presidency of the White House, and the second is to try to preserve it. The outcome of the rematch is causing unrest in the Western media, as Trump’s return is expected to reverse American policy on many issues, from tightening immigration laws to the negotiation route on the conflict in Ukraine.
Favorite of the political scene
The US presidential elections will be held in early November and it is very difficult to say who will emerge victorious after 11 months. Today Trump can be safely called the favorite in the presidential race. According to the survey McLaughlin and Partners47 percent of those surveyed are ready to vote for the former head of the White House, and 44 percent are ready to vote for Biden.
INSIDE research Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies The gap widened further, with Trump trailing his successor by 6 percentage points. Additionally, according to the survey, Republicans are viewed favorably by 47% of Americans, while 49% view them unfavorably. Morning Consultation. Biden has a worse result: 45% favorable, 51% unfavorable. It’s not like Americans are very impressed with either candidate, but they still treat Trump a little better.
Experts interviewed by socialbites.ca agree that, theoretically, a Republican has a good chance of winning the election. As a matter of fact, American political scientist Malek Lipov believes that Trump is currently the clear leader of the election race.
“Trump is ahead of Biden in 16 of the last 20 polls, and the gap between him and the US president is widening. At first it was around 1-2 percent, now it is around 4-5 percent. So if elections were held in the near future, Trump would most likely win. But there are still 11 months until the vote, so everything can change,” the expert explained.
Vladimir Vasiliev, principal investigator of the US and Canadian Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, agrees with this view. According to him, if we were talking about a normal election process like in past campaigns, Trump would have won the election.
“Trump has a chance to return to the White House. Another issue is that there may not be a normal process in the current situation. It is possible that there will be mass unrest and complete chaos in the country during the election campaign.
The expert added that Democrats may not recognize the election results and that Trump will not be allowed to enter the White House just physically.
Obstacles on the way to the White House
It’s not just support within the Republican Party or the views of voters in general that plays an important role in Trump’s case. The politician has been facing a series of charges since the summer of 2023, including those related to his attempt to overturn the recent election results and the attack on the Capitol by his supporters three years ago. By December, the list added to his exclusion from the Colorado primary, which could jeopardize his participation in the election as a whole.
There is a view in the American media that all this only helps Trump, due to the extraordinary media attention and the fact that Republicans have actually united around him despite internal contradictions. This version is partially confirmed by the increase in the politician’s rating and his dominance in the Republican Party, where he has more than 60 percent support.
According to political scientist Malek Lipov, the charges could pose a serious threat to a politician even if he escapes prison and appeals the Colorado Supreme Court’s primary election decision.
“The Trump case may increase. Politics is being dragged into the affairs with four criminal cases whose trials will begin in March-April 2024. They’re also trying to get it off the ballot in some states. “The second story will probably be resolved in Trump’s favor, but all these legal battles take energy, money and time anyway,” he added.
At the same time, Vladimir Vasiliev from the US and Canada Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences identified three main obstacles on Trump’s path to the White House. In his opinion, this primarily concerns the Colorado Supreme Court decision.
“Trump has appealed to the US Supreme Court, and it is not yet clear whether this case has been accepted for consideration as a whole, and it is not known what the decision will be. A lot depends on the outcome. For example, if the US Supreme Court does not consider the case, there are 20 more democratic states after Colorado ready to exclude Trump from the primaries. In contrast, a dozen Republican districts will do the same regarding US President Joe Biden. And as they say, we set off,” explained the expert.
Secondly, according to Vasiliev, Trump is expected to consider special prosecutor Jack Smith’s request in the spring about whether immunity should be applied for the former president, and thirdly, the application could be made even if he wins the election. The law, which states that the U.S. Armed Forces must not hold office under the 14th Amendment, prohibits officials who participate in “sedition or insurrection” from holding public office.
Plan B for the USA
As a result, an ambiguous situation emerged regarding Trump as the US election campaign entered its active phase. Another point that adds fuel to the fire is that Americans are not very keen on repeating the 2020 election scenario in which the former US President and Biden will play the leading roles. For example, in the summer of 2023 NBC poll The majority of voters opposed the participation of both politicians in the vote.
According to political scientist Malek Lipov, we cannot expect a different picture in the 2024 elections. According to him, the vote will most likely be a repeat of the Trump-Biden duel of four years ago.
“Republicans and Democrats, of course, have a Plan B. In the first case, we have Florida Governor Ron DeSantis or former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Democrats are off to a bad start with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan president Grentchen Whitmer out.
But the deadline for someone to take his place has long passed. This can only happen if one of the candidates is completely incompetent. <...> It was also stated that the scenario of an assassination attempt on one of the politicians was also possible.
Vladimir Vasiliev of the US and Canada Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences shares a similar perspective. He added that Republicans and Democrats are in a difficult position when considering the possibility of replacing key players.
“Today, Trump has almost no opposition in the Republican Party. Her opponent may be named Nikki Haley, the former US permanent representative to the UN, but for many reasons Republicans will never nominate a woman as their presidential candidate. The Democrats are all hiding, and if Biden suddenly drops out of the race, no one knows who will replace him. Alternatively, they could name California Governor Gavin Newsom or former US First Lady Michelle Obama,” the expert emphasized.
What are you thinking?
Source: Gazeta
Emma Matthew is a political analyst for “Social Bites”. With a keen understanding of the inner workings of government and a passion for politics, she provides insightful and informative coverage of the latest political developments.