Within the Polish camp, the debate about the election results and the conduct of the election campaign is still ongoing. The weekly magazine “Sieci” also publishes interesting texts on this subject. This is an important discussion, conclusions must be drawn, although it is also worth avoiding hasty decisions. I find suggestions to immediately adapt to the latest trends particularly dangerous. First of all, you cannot earn rubles and lose your virtue. Secondly, the reasons may not lie in the sphere of incorrect location on the ‘modernity – tradition’ axis. In such a case the only effect could be to make room for other formations.
Personally, I believe that the main reasons for the victory of Law and Justice, which is too weak to retain power on its own (and there is no coalition partner and probably could not be), are the following.
1. The imposition of a ruthless eight-star and ‘pro-rise’ narrative (de facto agitation) by the already powerful propaganda camp of the Third Polish Republic, fueled by enormous foreign money, which, as it turned out, pushed the substantive layer of the campaign to the background, which seemed to bounce off the wall. Worth mentioning is the “Program Street” in Łódź, where 800 Plus and a whole series of positive program proposals were announced. The result was…an increase in support for the Confederacy and the risk of being ‘passed over’ by the Civic Coalition.
We also saw the power of the system in the way they managed the referendum.
2. Why did imposing an eight-star narrative work? Previously it was ineffective for years. I estimate that the soil was created by two factors.
Inflationwas especially painful in cities with 10,000-50,000 inhabitants, where salaries could not sufficiently keep up with the losses, and the government’s powerful equalization offensive – which was only possible on a large scale after cessation of inflation – did not make any progress before the elections had an effect.
Natural wear and tear of those in power, underestimated in the government camp, visible in the polls, aggravated by the accidents exaggerated to the extreme by the media of the Third Polish Republic (i.e. 90 percent of the message) and the bad impression of some chaos in the government camp in the past months. And the involvement in the campaign – the PiS device worked less well than in previous years, everyone confirms this.
Was it possible to respond to this “wear and tear” in any way? Was a new staff offer possible here? Should you have tried it? After all, the newcomers could have explored other areas and caused other embarrassments. Don’t know. But this element of voters’ search for freshness can be seen today in the curious reaction to the Hołownia circus and all the new faces in the Sejm and the government.
In this context, let us note that this phenomenon of voter attrition also affected the PO in 2015, and the replacement of the government aggravated the situation.
3. Consequences of the abortion debate after the Constitutional Court ruling in 2020, including the actual leaving of PiS alone on the battlefield by Catholic lay communities and a large part of the church hierarchy. The social forces that had previously worked hard to clarify the protection of the life of this one thread of sick children, then became afraid of the forces of the left outburst and simply hid. This had political consequences. By the way, I would like to remind you how vigorously some Catholic publicists have attacked us because we doubted whether it was a good time to introduce legislation in this area.
The whole thing created an effect where the elections became a battle to mobilize voters emotions. Contrary to popular belief, Law and Justice had no choice here. I recommend talking to local activists. Recently I had this opportunity several times, in different parts of Poland, from different types of cities.
Great people, dedicated to their regions and Poland, with great achievements. They talked about how much had been achieved in these eight years, how previously impossible development barriers were overcome, how important investments for local development were carried out, how poverty levels fell and how people began to return from emigration.
And yet none of this had decisive significance in the campaign. The mandates that determine the majority in the Sejm have been taken by opposition people who were often unknown in the regions, in no way undeserved and in no way unremarkable – apart from the photo with Tusk, Hołownia and Czarzasty.
“Not a single positive side worked, not a single achievement was defended, the opposition’s powerful propaganda generated huge amounts of money, confused people and decided everything at the level of emotions.
— I often hear this phrase in slightly different versions in the field.
No one there argues that “more positives” were needed. Everyone there knows that there were many, that this was the only base of the campaign in the field, but the Poles didn’t seem to want to listen anymore. The echo of the subsequent programs, funds, investments and announcements, while credible, was very, very weak.
The emotion imposed by powerful media, on the Internet and by celebrities turned out to be stronger. My interlocutors believe, despite the bitterness they feel, that they still managed to achieve a huge result, only PLN 400,000 lower. votes weaker than in 2019. This is due to the change of course in the last stage and the launch of a comparative campaign, recalling Tusk’s “performances” from the previous parliamentary term.
Without that, without the clash with Tusk, they would have crushed us completely
– one activist told me.
Of course there are other voices, other examples of success that are worth respecting Kacper Płażyński in Gdańsk. But the local and historical context and a look at the rest of the country suggest that this is more of an exception to the rule.
In this sea of bad news, there is also good news. The emotions stirred up by eight stars will pass quickly, they are already disappearing. Such a voltage peak occurs occasionally. On the other hand, in terms of communication (not the message, but the tools to reach people with it), PiS needs to move quickly into the 21st century, build professional teams that gather experience and knowledge, and develop tools. However, this was a matter of negligence.
Most importantly, Poles did not reject the socio-economic policies of Jarosław Kaczyński’s camp. From both my conversations and surveys, it appears that they view it positively and want it to continue. The past eight years have been a great time for Poland. Great achievements have been made, which will pay off, especially given the lack of seriousness and skills of the people who took power.
Source: wPolityce