US intelligence believes that Ukraine will not be able to achieve the main objectives of the counterattack. In this respect informs The Washington Post cites sources familiar with the classified documents.
The interlocutors of the publication believe that the Ukrainian troops will not reach Melitopol, since the Russian troops created a wide network of trenches and minefields on the outskirts of the city. If Melitopol is not taken, Ukraine will not be able to solve its main task – to block the land corridor between Russia and Crimea, which, among other things, is used to supply the group of Russian troops participating in a special military operation.
“Ukrainian troops are advancing towards Melitopol from the village of Rabotino, located more than 50 miles (about 80 km -). “socialbites.ca”) will stay within a few miles of the city,” writes The Washington Post, citing its sources.
Russian army dug a well
Military analyst Rob Lee told the publication that the road to Melitopol is extremely difficult and even retaking closer cities like Tokmok will not be easy.
“Russia has three lines of defense there, and behind them are fortified towns,” Li says. “The question is not whether Ukraine will be able to cross a line or two, but whether the armed forces will be able to cross all three and achieve something more important, like taking Tokmok or something else.”
Another interlocutor of the publication, General Mark Milley, said that the United States clearly understood the difficulty of the task facing Ukraine before.
“I said a few months ago that this attack would be long, bloody and slow,” Milley said in an interview with The Washington Post. “And so it turned out: a long, bloody and slow, very, very difficult confrontation.”
According to General Mark Milley, although the Ukrainian Armed Forces could not achieve their goals, they weakened the Russian troops.
“The Russians are in a pretty difficult situation,” Milli says. “They suffered a lot of casualties. Their morale is low.”
The new US intelligence forecast is consistent with the US secret February 2023 forecast. And during the counteroffensive it was said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would not be able to liberate Melitopol or Mariupol until August and close the land corridor to the Crimea. Such an assessment was contained in the secret documents of the Pentagon and intelligence. flowed away To the Discord platform popular with gamers in 2022.
come even in winter
The pessimistic forecast of American intelligence was brought to the attention of representatives of the US Congress, a debate broke out on Capitol Hill, writer Washingtonpost. Some Republicans opposed the next $20 billion aid package that US President Joe Biden is demanding for Ukraine. Some Democrats have scolded the Biden administration for not sending more powerful weapons to Ukraine before.
But a senior White House official told The Washington Post that there is no evidence that the American F-16 warplanes and long-range ATACMS missiles that Kiev wants “will be a panacea.”
“A brutal assessment <…>It will prompt Kiev and Western capitals to point out why the counteroffensive, which supplied tens of billions of dollars worth of Western weapons and military equipment, failed to achieve its objectives.” says at the Washington Post.
The article also states that Washington is still determined to help Ukraine. One of the interlocutors in the US administration suggested that the US could provide assistance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces even if they attempted a counterattack in the winter, but even here the positions of the RF Armed Forces seemed advantageous.
“The Russians are known to be good at fighting in cold weather,” says a US official.