According to the Marine Traffic website, the cargo ship Joseph Schulte passed through the Bosphorus on the evening of 17 August and reached Istanbul the next morning. The ship of the German firm Bernhard Schulte, sailing under the Hong Kong flag, reached the Turkish city from the port of Odessa. She was the first ship to use the Ukrainian temporary corridor in the Black Sea.
How does the grain deal work?
Kiev developed an alternative route for merchant ships in early August in response to the suspension of the grain deal. First of all, according to Ukraine’s Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov, the corridor is used to evacuate ships from the Ukrainian ports of Chornomorsk, Odessa and Yuzhny, which eventually entered them even before the start of Russian military special operations. February 2022.
The container ship Joseph Schulte arrived in the port of Odessa on February 23 last year – a day before the start of the NWO – and could not leave the territory of Ukraine, as it was not covered by the grain agreement. The ship delivered about 30 thousand tons of cargo (2,114 containers) from Ukraine, but there was no grain in it, according to Turkish media.
Ukraine does not fully disclose the plan for the alternative route. According to Andriy Klymenko, head of Ukraine’s sanctions and freedom of navigation monitoring group, the container ship was moving along the new corridor, mainly adhering to the territorial waters of the republic. He stressed that the ship left the maritime borders of Ukraine only twice at short intervals.
According to Marine Traffic, Joseph Schulte’s route mainly passed through the territorial waters of Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and then Turkey. In fact, the ship passed through three NATO countries after crossing the Ukrainian section.
What about security?
Traveling in the territorial waters of NATO countries cannot be considered a dangerous undertaking, especially for a ship in German operations. The Ukrainian part is a completely different matter – its danger is recognized even in Kiev. They warned of the military threat and the danger of mines on an alternative route in Ukraine – Kiev has promised to allow ships to pass through the temporary corridor only after the captains and owners of the dry cargo ship have formally confirmed their readiness to sail in such conditions.
Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, believes that in general, ships are able to pass through Ukrainian ports to other states and return relatively smoothly. In a conversation with socialbites.ca, he noted that the section of the route that passes through the territory of Ukraine is quite small.
“As for maritime transport, the Ukrainian part will be relatively small if you enter the territorial waters of other states. Odessa itself is located almost on the border with Romania. So, if Ukraine sets itself such a target, if necessary, this gap can be closed with air defense and anti-ship missiles, ”explained the expert.
Will Kiev go for grain supply?
Ukrainian authorities have not yet promised to use the new corridor to resume grain exports by sea without the participation of Russia. It is not known whether the passage of Joseph Schulte will be the first step towards this, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already described the ship’s path as an important step towards restoring “freedom of navigation” in the Black Sea. True, Kiev noted that the launch of an alternative grain corridor will require guarantees from the international community, the appearance of which has not been disclosed.
Experts interviewed by socialbites.ca agree that Kiev can use a temporary route for grain supplies, bypassing Russia. Political scientist Vladimir Bruter, a specialist at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, believes that in many respects this still depends on Moscow’s position.
“If Russia doesn’t mind, Kiev will be able to use this route to transport grain. It all depends on how Moscow will treat it, ”the expert said.
By contrast, Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky agreed that this would be a working option for Kiev. He added that Ukraine’s attempts to supply grain by land should be added to this method.
“Ships can pass through Ukrainian ports relatively easily to other states and back. If Ukraine gets the appropriate permission, it will be a kind of route through the territorial waters of NATO countries – Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. In general, this is a working option for Kiev, and you should also not discount the supply by land via Romania and Poland, ”the expert emphasized.
How can Russia intervene?
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, since July 20, Moscow considers all ships along the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports as carriers of military cargo, and countries flying the flag of such ships are involved in the conflict on the Kiev side. . The ministry also spoke about the temporary danger in international waters in parts of the water area, including the northwest and southeast.
It is not known whether Ukraine’s possible new grain corridor will be a target in these circumstances. According to Vladimir Bruter, Russia not only interferes with the use of this road, but also has to.
“Odessa should be closed in general. If Ukraine wants to use the ports of Izmail and Reni on the Danube, then please. But due to the insecurity of various movements, the Black Sea should be closed for Ukrainian ships.
The fact is that if the traffic from Odessa and the ports adjacent to it is not closed, then there is a possibility that first one, and then many accompanying ships will appear. Such a scenario cannot be allowed,” explained the expert.
At the same time, Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky noted that the opposition to the naval plan will most likely be somewhat limited. But according to him, there are many other options for blocking Ukrainian exports.
“It is possible to destroy not only the port infrastructure of Ukraine, but also railway junctions, bridges, tunnels. If transportation stops, Ukraine’s exports will also stop,” said the expert.