What we will talk about here is about election numbers and data. It is not easy to understand before anyone else what will happen at the 28M in Elche and to know which party will win the most votes, which has nothing to do with the party that will occupy the mayoralty. Today, on Sunday, what will we pay to know nearby? midnightthey will tell us for free.
can be done intrigues at coffee meetings, look at the trends or go to the polls, also see what happened in previous appointments, but one thing is clear: there are still too many secret ballots. Thirty thousand undecided people from Elche who will decide in the last week who to vote or who stays at home. Knowing how many is not picking a random number: you just have to see what’s been going on in recent years. accept as reliable data.
top of the list
And these votes Decide who will be mayor no one has yet insured Although it seems like a cliché. They’re from Elche, who are currently considering going to the polls or having a relaxed Sunday because they’re not sure about it, but they end up voting, sometimes park communion or family/social gatherings. They will do this because they know they have the right, but during these 15 days the parties (and the media) often neither know nor endorse the top of the charts, no matter how many. They crushed them with foolish promises. This is why so many votes are cast in a national key because they identify leaders with love and/or phobias. That’s why it grew both political populism.
In the previous eight-year municipal elections, between 2011 and 2019, the people of Elche voted three times. They are the premise For this analysis we used nine, who, like everyone else, have as many comments as parties to vote on. we come from herewhere are we going in town?
2011, END OF MAJORIES
The ceiling of a political party is the ceiling that marks an election on a given day. And those in May 2011 were very high numbers for the two major parties. Up to 49,626 people from Elche voted for PP won the mayorship with Mercedes Alonso. This number is almost half of those who voted in the last municipal elections: 101,981 Elche citizens in 2019. And they are also PP’s historic roof in the city but where is its territory?
Marked in last municipality with 28,135 votes on it was the name of the candidate: Pablo Ruz. PP lost 21,500 votes in eight years. Can you get them back? This much.
And despite losing the 2011 election, in which Alejandro Soler was a candidate, the PSOE received a very high vote: 43,462. This was… last year of stubborn bipartisanship, one of the biggest voted for the rest. 26 out of 27 seats were distributed.
The last one was the Elche Party, which received 5,977 support. There were new forces like Compromís and others in stagnation like UpyD, which failed to achieve representation. nails, way to disappear; others would go further until they became the selector switch.
2015, IN FREE FALL
Four years later, in 2015, the PP again became the most voted power with 29,071 votes, ahead of the PSOE with 32,878 votes. Both sides experienced a bleed compared to their predecessors: PP minus 16,800 votes for the 14,000 votes left by the Socialists. 30,800 votes in totalundecideds to migrate to other political options, which allowed for a turn in the Mayoralty because of the deals they sparked.
Adding to the appearance of the Partido de Elche, the growth of Compromís and the invasion of Ciudadanos, Carlos González’s Office of the mayor with Mireia Molla and as partner Cristina Martínez.
ballots
The undecided votes are therefore very important because they belong to Elche, who is willing to choose any option if she is convinced. tenure from 2011 to 2015 added to an error citizens fled the two parties that they had given most of their trust four years ago. They searched for government keys. It was mainly shown with a nationalist force like Compromís, which took one-third of the total. It added 15,293 votes, quadrupling the 3,100 ballots obtained four years ago. It was the Molla effect.
During, Albert Rivera’s oranges Reached 10,694 support with an unknown David Caballero as the lead actor. The Elche Party consolidated by 6,487 votes, but increased by only 500 more votes, and Ilicitanos por Elche received 7,267 votes, which no one doubts came directly from the PP granary because its leader, Christina MartinezIt was not a split. Add up and you’ll see how the numbers come out.
2019, REBOUND AND DEPRESSION
In the last municipal election, the PSOE rebounded and saved the electorate after the bloodshed of 2015. Carlos González polished his administration and added 8,000 more to reach 37,351, which, along with the drop in Elche percentage who went to the polls, gave him the unthinkable number of 12 councilors, as the socialists themselves privately admitted, as the lowest remembered rate in a city council did not even reach 60%. Meanwhile, PP continued in depression and It wasn’t the most voted power either, as in the previous two appointments. He drew another 4,700 votes from his initials and is already the nominee for Pablo Ruz. Since 2011, when it was in the attic, 44 percent of the vote.
2023 ORPHANS Oaths
Now in 2023 there are six thousand orphaned voters in Elche, these are the vanished Elche Party (2,887 votes) and Ilicitanos por Elche (3,039 votes). The votes of these municipalities are covered because their voters were clear about who and what they voted for: they chose important parties, now they can call others or turn to big formations. Those six thousand votes can make sense one by one, depending on who gets it. two councilors by the whimsical law d’Hont.
2023 AND CS VOTER?
And there is another important question. We’re going to have to know what happens with that one. third political force Do you know who he was in today’s vote in Elche? Ciudadanos, which received 8,950 endorsements four years ago but has an uncertain future as all their ambition and enthusiasm seem to have vanished. The situation in these four years, with García-Ontiveros, a candidate who was expelled and later reinstated, and his listed friend Eva Crisol, announcing his resignation Adhering to the minutes until the end of the term without attending the general assembly meetings does not create a sense of trust.
That’s where the data comes in, figuring out where the majority of these “whimsical” voters live, because they decide on mayors without marrying any party. The Elche Party has had good results (over a percent) in the El Pla neighborhood or Los Palmerales and counties, perhaps because its neighbors deliver what they claim. Ilicitanos por Elche also achieved good results Los Palmerales, Carrus Oeste And Chimney Park and often at Camp d’Elx.
5,000 votes
But all this is conjecture. At 28M, at the end of the daythere will be parties that will have “paid” 5,000 votes to councilors, and others will suffice with half Organizations with close to 5,000 votes along with their names, they will be excluded from the Elche plenary session as they have not reached the 5% required by d’Hont’s law to be counted. But all that will be another story.