1.5% of the vote. It was this small advantage that four years ago allowed the left to reorganize the Botànic pact and keep Consell. This Invest Group survey What the Prensa Ibérica en la Comunidad newspapers published this weekend envisions an even tighter scenario for next Sunday’s elections. In fact, the majority to ensure that one bloc wins the other. one deputy. The poll offers more possibilities for the left to continue at the head of the regional executive. However, since the situation is as follows, it is also possible for the balance to eventually shift to the right. technical tie. Almost all the polls we see these days paint a similar picture. The next government of the Generalitat is being discussed, literally, on a tile. And the week that begins will be decisive in determining who will stay in it and who will not.
What does this depend on? Ximo Puig continue to preside over the Generalitat for the third consecutive legislature, loyalty And United We Can jointly or for evacuation from Palau Carlos Mazon With the help of the far right? Registered participation and that it has not been altered by factors outside the Valencian Community. Mazón fights these elections for occupying Palau. And Puig, because they don’t evict him for other people’s debts.
What does the INFORMACIÓN, Levante y Mediterráneo de Castellón survey say about these 28M? First: as predicted, No candidate can even come close to 50 deputies. an absolute majority; nor a “sufficient majority”, which assumes that a party adds more seats than its opponents. Second: Unidas Podemos, unknown for months, will break the 5% barrier and will continue to decreaserepresentation in courts. Third: By 2015, the PP will win votes and seats in the three provinces that will be excluded from the autonomous Parliament, taking back the vast majority of those who fled Ciudadanos. will distribute its juicy legacy among popular and Vox. Fourth: However, if turnout is within the historical range of this autonomy, ie above 68%, the PSOE will govern together with Compromís and United We Can, which will replace the third political power of the Community. . A a plan similar to the one produced eight years ago, when the two parties (PP and Cs), in which the votes of the right are divided (PP and Cs), the first and fourth comers do not meet and the left do three: PSOE (second place), Compromís (third place) and Podemos (last of the five races). Fifth: if this is not the case, even if turnout is around 68% or even lower and Podemos stays in Parliament, the PP will register enough MPs. Build a government with Voxlower flow in this case ballot box would surpass Compromís by establishing itself as the third party of the Valencian Community.
Is the far right an autonomous third political power with its own language and culture? Of course why not? If it does, it wouldn’t be a surprise, especially if we look at the trend. shifting towards more conservative positions The self-positioning of those surveyed in ideological rank is more right-leaning, which the Region is experiencing, although it remains in the mid-range. If not, the left should revise the assumptions it has been working on so far as if it were a dogma of faith. Valencian society, in which self-employed, civil servants, service workers and citizens from other parts of Spain and the EU live, has been transformed in such a way that it does not fully understand the scale of the movements, especially beyond the PSOE. It seems that Vox cannot aspire to achieve this elite status in Andalusia or Galicia. Not in the Basque Country or Catalonia. At least on the near horizon. But it is possible here. In any case, when we talk about a technical draw and the possible victory of one block against the other by just one seat, here’s what we’re talking about: polarization advances.
One thing that is also clear from the poll is that the vote in the Community of Valencia, when deciding a strong “national” component. This explains why, while a large majority approves of Consell’s administration under Puig and finds the work of the opposition too inadequate, the balance in deciding what to vote for has shifted to such an extent that it jeopardizes the continuity of the same party. Government previously rated as positive. Puig insisted on arguing that in this campaign the vote on who will currently govern the Valencian Community will be voted on and other elections will come later to decide who will govern Madrid. But isolating oneself from the general political environment is predictably very difficult. In this sense, the strategy of PP candidate Carlos Mazón to present them regional elections As a general pre-selection, it can be as inconvenient as you want it to be, but it’s just as effective as it is hard to fight. And it was accompanied directly or indirectly by all parties and all the media on a national scale.
The ‘pollution’ between ‘national’ and regional politics reaches a point where Puig’s administration’s assessment exceeds what he has achieved as a political leader, in which case this should be suspected because of the shadow cast on him. Pedro Sanchez. When it comes to analysis, we should not get caught up in what historians call “false clarity of the obvious.” Mazón scores very low on notoriety (just over 40% of interviewees know him) and still gets the best credit as a politician, but both need to be put in their own context. When little is known about you, your score is higher because you are rated by yourself above all else, and logically they do it to do it better, whereas the highly relevant is valued by both Tyrians and Trojans. But the fact that you’re not well known doesn’t punish you too much if those who have to vote for you will do it not necessarily for you, but to shorten it and fire your opponent.
So the keyword mobilization. According to the poll, right-wing voters are over-excited in these elections because of the national debate rather than the regional one. And the left is less motivated, more because of the noise and interference produced by the State administration rather than the local government, but the development of the campaign exacerbates it. And everything depends on it. How many decide to vote next Sunday, and how many choose to do anything but exercise their right to vote. The Right convinced their voters that this was an opportunity for them. The challenge of the left in the next seven days, to convince themselves Crying over spilled milk didn’t help.