“Victory with anxiety”: what can be expected from Macron’s second term?

The second round of the French presidential election repeated the situation in 2017, when Macron also competed and defeated Le Pen.

However, if the difference between candidates was more than 33% last time, it is now only 17%.

Le Pen showed the best result of his entire political career, given that the candidate ran for the third time in the presidential election.

It not only reduced the gap between competitors, but also reduced the number of French voters. According to the most recent data, turnout was 71.99%, which is the lowest in 50 years – lower in 1969 alone, when only 68.85% of voters voted in the runoff.

The disappointment of some French people in the elections was also reflected in the protests. Hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets in various cities of the country to express their dissatisfaction with both candidates. One of the popular slogans of the rallies is “Neither Le Pen nor Macron. No mother, no boss” is a reference to the political campaigns in which both tried to present themselves as candidates for all Frenchmen. Street protests led to clashes with the police and resulted in the deaths of at least two people.

Why did Macron beat Le Pen?

The incumbent leader celebrated his victory by convening a large supporter rally on the Champ de Mars in Paris, where he thanked the French for preventing the far-right from winning a victory at Le Pen. Since the end of the first round on April 10, Macron focused on exactly this feature of his opponent, which in response focused on the mistakes of the head of state in domestic politics.

A number of French media outlets state that Macron’s victory was largely due to the fact that some of the voters did not vote against him, but against Marine Le Pen.

The opinion of the press is shared by French politicians. For example, Alexis Corbière, spokesman for the far-left Unconquered France movement, said that the incumbent government actually won only 38% of the vote.

“He is the most unsuccessful elected president. While only 38% of registered voters voted for him, many voted to block Marine Le Pen. He is in the minority, ”the politician explained.

Experts interviewed by socialbites.ca evaluate Macron’s victory differently. Therefore, INION RAS’s Principal Investigator Natalia Lapina believes that the president’s result could be called “a victory with a great sense of anxiety”, given the low turnout due to the high level of protest voting.

“Right now in France there is a huge rejection of Macron as a person. As part of the current vote, the French exhibited an entirely unparalleled level of absenteeism (avoidance from participating in elections), as the presidential election is the most important moment in the political life of the Fifth Republic.

Participation was very low in the first round (73.69%) and even lower in the second round. However, despite the fact that Marine Le Pen ran a very successful election campaign and significantly increased its voter share, the reluctance of the far right to come to power in the country for the time being continues,” he said.

Pavel Timofeev, head of regional issues and conflicts at the Department of European Political Studies at IMEMO RAS, lists two reasons for Macron’s victory.

“First, he turned out to be a good leader overall, who could prove to the French that his first term of presidency was really effective. He initiated a series of reforms, tried to modernize the economy and was active in the foreign arena. Second, none of Macron’s opponents was on his shoulder. They were all much weaker and failed to truly challenge the head of state.

Which of them turned out to be more correct – Macron is very good or his opponents are very bad – it is difficult to say.

However, according to all the polls, what Macron did can be called an indication that he confidently won both rounds, ”the statement said.

What can be expected from Macron’s second term?

During his election campaign, the French leader focused on the defense policy of France and the European Union as a whole. In particular, Macron promised to increase the defense budget from 40.9 billion euros to 50 billion euros, as well as to strengthen coordination with the EU on military matters. This approach was largely due to the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis and the Russian military operation in Ukraine, which the president openly criticized, supporting many of the Western sanctions against Moscow, including the rejection of Russia’s energy supplies.

The president’s domestic policy promises have focused on ongoing reforms, such as a controversial initiative to raise the retirement age from 62 to 65, cut taxes on businesses, and reduce unemployment.

At the same time, after the results of the presidential election, Macron announced that his new term will not be a full-fledged continuation of the past policy, but will focus on working for the unity of France, which is “soaked in divisions”.

From the perspective of Natalia Lapina of INION RAS,

The real challenge for the president will be that more than half of the French are against him.

According to him, if Le Pen’s votes are added to the corrupted ballot papers and those not visible in the polling stations, the voting results prove this.

Macron has a very liberal campaign schedule and pension reform has already divided France. This was one of the reasons he voted against the president, because unlike his opponents, he was in favor of lowering the retirement age. While Macron’s idea is supported by representatives of the creative professions, managers and retirees, various hard workers are opposed to it. And how he can unite France by insisting on such changes is a big question,” he said.

Many French sociologists and experts speak of the restoration of the Yellow Vests movement as well as the risk of class struggle returning, Lapina continued, another challenge is absenteeism and may herald protests among young people against both Macron and Le Pen. important actions in the autumn period.

In turn, Pavel Timofeev of the European Department of Political Studies believes Macron is faced above all with the task of keeping France in the world’s five largest economies.

“This is especially important since the French side, like other EU countries, is ready to abandon Russian gas and oil, thereby solving its strategic task of putting the economy on a green path. The problem of social elevators in domestic politics will also become the main issue for the president. Macron needs to show the French that his reforms are helping to make the channels through which people come to power transparent and transparent,” he said.

Before the “third round”

The official start of Macron’s second term will be in early May, when the French leader is sworn in. In a month, the president will face the first test – the parliamentary elections. In France they are often compared to the third round of the presidential campaign.

In 2017, Macron’s Striker, Republic! He managed to secure a majority in the lower house of parliament, taking 308 out of 577 posts. However, in all of the last by-elections, the president’s party yielded extremely poor results.

“Party “Forward, Republic!” flew in local and regional elections, receiving only 10% of the vote in the latter case. Given all the circumstances, including the height of the protest votes, it was very difficult for Macron to be elected president this time, which could affect his political party’s results in the elections.

Success of 2017 “Forward Republic!” may not repeat.

At the same time, it is still unknown whether the situation will reach the coexistence of the president with the opposition in parliament,” said Natalia Lapina of INION RAS.

Pavel Timofeev from the European Department of Political Studies agrees with him, that according to him Macron’s party has not really managed to take root on the ground and winning the parliamentary elections will be much more difficult than the presidential elections.

“Actually, the president’s main task is to prevent Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left leader of the French Invictus party, and a large number of supporters of the far-right Le Pen from entering parliament. Macron’s rather convincing victory in the current ballot shows that he is still retaining and partially increasing his constituency. It can be used in different ways in parliamentary elections. Macron will either try to reintegrate some prominent figures into his party, as he did in 2017, or try to form electoral alliances with moderate parties, including the Republicans, Socialists and Greens. for him to cooperate, ”the expert concluded.