Sławomir Sierakowski and Professor Przemysław Sadura presented in the report “Voters for One List, Leaders Against”, published by “Krytyka Polityczna”, the survey of voters of individual parties and their electoral potential. We have already devoted two articles to discussing the report. In this text we describe the electoral prospects of the largest opposition group – Civic Platform / Coalition – in the light of the authors’ research. In short, wasteful.
In the previous episode we wrote about PSL. In our view, the research by Sierakowski and Sadura suggests that the Stronnictwo in its current form may not survive the election. Over the years, the People’s Party renounced their own identity, they became a variety of POs, only from villages and smaller towns, so they put themselves in a situation where any decision could have disastrous consequences for them. Is it just one list with PO, or a start with the Hołownia Party, which PSL voters hate. Details in link below.
READ ALSO: Report on voters: PSL goes to the bottom. Its leaders want a joint start with the Hołownia Party, while its supporters dislike it
In the first episode we wrote about the emotions associated with the voters of the two largest parties. According to the report’s authors, they are extremely opposite. PiS supporters feel confidence, joy, pride and hope. They are convinced of the good direction that the country is heading under the PiS rule and want to continue it that way.
At the other extreme are the PO voters who feed only on negative emotions: anger, nervousness, depression, discouragement. Sierakowski and Sadura do not mention any positive emotion that would accompany PO voters. Just “oo”.
The profile of the citizen coalition voter is also largely determined by emotions in relation to the world of politics. Negative emotions (anger, nervousness, depression and discouragement) predominate here.
Below is a link to an article about the emotions of PiS and PO voters:
The PO electorate feeds on anger, rage and frustration. PSL voters favor Morawiecki. This report will panic the opposition
Where does this anger come from?
The negative emotions associated with PO voters have many causes. One of them is the attitude of the party leaders and Donald Tusk himself, who very often says he’s going to be furious or damn it. These terms are not a journalistic metaphor, but a literal evocation of rally cries from the PO chairman. The second reason for the rage, anger and frustration experienced by PO voters is certainly the realization that all this aggressive agitation, constant brawling, stories about the raging regime are of no avail. The ratings of the PO are not growing and PiS itself is very strong. So no hope of winning.
Research by IPSOS for the Sierakowski and Sadura report shows that the PO can count on 27.5 percent. to vote. Much more interesting, however, are analyzes of the PO’s ability to attract new voters. Since there is practically no voter flow between PiS and the opposition, potential voters are almost exclusively among those who have declared that they will not go to the elections for the time being. PiS can win 36 percent of such potential voters — by 3 percentage points. more than declared voters (33 percent), and PO only 23 percent. – 4.5 points less than among those who have already decided. So the more people participate in the elections, the worse it is for the PO. That Tusk’s party is protesting against more polling places and organizing transport for voters is not surprising, especially since it concerns a province where support for PiS is high and support for PO is low.
The lack of voter flow from PiS to the opposition is one of the proofs of the complete failure of PO’s current strategy. All the effort involved in demonstrations, shouting, making a fuss about everything, whining, describing imaginary disasters, primitive and aggressive message went like blood in the sand. Only 2% of those who turned their backs on PiS did so because of the conflict with the EU over KPO and aversion to Jarosław Kaczyński. 1 percent were alienated by: foreign policy, abortion issues and LGBT ideology, attitudes toward the church, public media propaganda. At the same time, these simple percentages do not add up, because the respondents provided multiple reasons for each. The reform of the judiciary, the scandal about defective judges did not cause the slightest outflow of the electorate – 0%, zero, zero.
It was in these issues that the PO invested most of its screams, shouts, quarrels and its political authority. Eight years of barking in the wilderness yielded no results, proving her persistent intellectual inability to present arguments that would convince the ruling party’s voters to turn away from PiS. And so it will continue – the PO campaigning on the coffin of a tragically deceased boy, like President Adamowicz, will bring nothing to the opposition, but it will not harm it and it will continue it unknowingly, unworthily. Nothing was presented that would be the subject of public debate, a substantive dispute that is the very essence of democracy. PiS can therefore be calm about the PO opposition – it cannot think of anything that could harm it. All it can do is create an atmosphere of discouragement, which it falls victim to, as PiS itself has the biggest reserves in the “repugnant” electorate.
A common list is the only salvation?
The inability to mobilize the potential electorate, to take over the voters from PiS, leads the PO leaders and various television pundits to the idea that the way to win is to make one list, as in the communist era of the Front of National Unity. However, this requires some understanding and at least initial sympathy between the opposition groups. So Sierakowski and Sadura explored who is for each other in terms of the party and appropriately titled “We like each other in opposition.” Not true, they don’t like each other very much, and in some cases they even hate each other. Suffice it to say that PSL voters prefer PiS to PO, and Poland 2050, with which they would go together, do not suffer, which we wrote about in the second episode.
Which voters can the PO count on with snacks like Barbara Nowacka’s group? And so the Civic Coalition likes (this term was used in the report) 2 percent. PiS voters, themselves – 82 percent, half (50 percent) of Polish voters 2050, 34 percent. Left and only 15 percent. of the people. In the latter case, it is less than PiS – 22 percent. A whopping 40 percent of PSL voters have a bad opinion of KO. The leader of the PO, Donald Tusk, also enjoys moderate sympathy from opposition voters. “Kochany” is in his party – 78 percent, slightly less in Poland 2050 – 62 percent. and 34 percent on the left. The head of the Platform is also liked by 22 percent. farmers, which is a worse result than among them Jarosław Kaczyński (28 percent), and also 54 percent. has a bad opinion of him.
When it comes to KO voters, 82 percent. like their own party, Poland 2050 – 35 percent, Left – 27 percent. The People’s Party – a former government coalition partner – can count on the sympathy of only 11 percent. KO voters. As for individual party leaders, KO voters like their own – Rafał Trzaskowski (87 percent) – more than Donald Tusk (78 percent), Szymon Hołownia 41 percent, Robert Biedroń – 32 percent, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz – 29 percent . , Włodzimierz Czarzasty – barely 17 percent.
We will not list all the opposition leaders involved in the survey, but their multiplicity and mutual animosity, including between voters of individual parties, shows how difficult it is to put together a single list for elections. Despite this, KO voters are the most in favor of its creation – as many as 80 percent. And here we come to a certain paradox, or cognitive dissonance. Party propaganda begins to diverge with analyzes and emotions. No less than 68 percent of KO voters think that this party will win the autumn elections. So why do they need a common list where they include foreign, hated entities and share success? My thesis is this: the KO voters are the most fanatical of all voters and the most inclined to imitate leaders uncritically and mindlessly by repeating what they preach. As they say we will win, we also present the optimism of a party activist. As a list says, we don’t question why, since we will win anyway, but we reiterate the call for the formation of the Nation’s Unity Front after the leaders. We are ready to accept those we hate like PSL. When Tusk becomes enraged, so does the electorate with fury and anger. It is PO voters who most often sign the vulgar slogan “eat PiS” hidden under 8 stars. They can follow the leaders, with anyone, for power. Program, values, worldview are of tertiary importance.
Deepened hostilities
Sierakowski and Sadura’s report “Voters for One List, Leaders Against” was published on March 6. It is safe to say that from then on a lot could change in the results of the investigation, because a lot has also happened in politics. There was certainly animosity and frustration. PSL’s reluctance towards PO probably grew stronger after the PO cowardly, like Pilate, washed his hands of the wretched, and for moral and technical reasons, TVN attacked John Paul II. The feeling of hopelessness grows with the result of the polls on party preferences, which are disastrous for the opposition. One could risk the proposition that the PO leaders, and the electorate behind them, will soon be fighting the other opposition parties as fiercely and viciously as PiS itself. The teaser is even unaware, as if pathological agitation, the activity in the media of Tomasz Lis, who mentions the greatest potential ally of the PO – Szymon Hołownia Kałownia. The head of PO Tusk himself threatens other leaders that if they do not agree with his dictate regarding one list, he will split their parties.
Either they will come to their senses (leaders of other opposition parties – editorial note) and quickly decide in favor of one list, and if not, I will unfortunately have to turn to all Poles fed up with PiS to get a joint list, the strongest. that PiS can beat.
This is a sign of great despair and frustration.
Today it is difficult to estimate how Tusk’s blackmail will work, but there are many indications that he is aware of the disastrous, worsening situation in which the opposition and his party find themselves. You can guess that the level of aggression and ruthlessness will increase, as will the frenzied mobilization of the opposition media, and all of this will produce as miserable results as it has done so far. Summons, incantations, tirades, messages and incantations will multiply like rabbits in Australia. The noise will be unbearable. Either way, PO and its leaders like Tusk or Budka are emotionally and intellectually unable to change their behavior, so they’re headed for humiliating defeat in the fall.
Source: wPolityce