The war in Ukraine is ‘our war’. Russia clearly questioned the international order that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union and for which the US stands guarantor. It is an attack on Ukraine in fact Putin, unwillingly, began to physically alter the aforementioned order and declared war on the United States, which protects this order, says Prof. Romuald Szeremietiew, academic lecturer, security expert summarizes the year that has passed since the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
wPolityce: What has changed in the year since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine?
Prof. Romuald Sheremetev: It is worth pointing out that new tasks appeared and a more urgent need to rearm not only the Polish army, but also those of other countries. And this is what is being implemented in our country. The war in Ukraine has made the threat from Russia more apparent to many countries.
What is also new is that Poland, an important country on NATO’s eastern flank, began to bear the main responsibility for military security in the region. This, of course, also affected purchases and changes in the Polish army.
Undoubtedly, we are experiencing a certain acceleration in the aforementioned rearmament of the military. Something that could have been spread out over years had to be done quickly. And it turned out that short deadlines for selecting and purchasing equipment, and therefore – quickly increasing our defense capabilities, are possible.
As announced late last year by Mr. Mariusz Błaszczak, in this year’s budget, according to the formula of 3 percent. GDP, PLN 97.4 billion will be allocated to the armed forces. Do military operations in Ukraine check these estimates and intentions?
I don’t know enough to comment on such details. And it is right that the Ministry of National Defense protects this kind of information, because those who do not wish us well want to know that too. Especially since we are currently operating in wartime conditions. However, based on what has been leaked to the media and what we observe, it can be said that our authorities treat our security very seriously and responsibly.
Do we look at the Polish army differently today? We had President Joe Biden in Poland thanking us for taking not only our own safety seriously, but the safety of others
Undoubtedly, the rank of the Polish army rose. First of all, Poland has made a very big effort when it comes to military support to Ukraine. In addition to large purchases of weapons, we are dealing with the formation of new units, including, for example, the restoration of the 1st Division of the Legions. These are all things that should tickle the imagination and judgment of our military.
One of the elements that support the prestige of our army is the fact that our army – along with other services, with the Border Guard at the forefront – has participated in the protection of our border with Belarus. This showed that we have efficient systems that guarantee security, and that the Polish army undoubtedly has a key position when it comes to the technical capabilities of our equipment.
Western European countries are beginning to actively support Ukraine, not only in statements. We have a change of mind from other NATO countries?
The year that passes is the time when the North Atlantic Alliance made a de facto study of its usefulness.
There have been all sorts of concerns about how NATO works. We remember President Macron’s statement about the brain death of the Pact. Some insignificantly ushered in NATO’s transformation into a political debating club. It didn’t happen.
The idea of building a European army also came back. Fortunately, NATO has shown itself to be an efficient, well-organized structure, and that the United States has – so far – played the leading role in this alliance. As a result, they are able to work out certain actions, which are then translated into concrete actions in the form of, for example, creating a strong NATO eastern flank with Poland in the lead role. It is also one of the elements that show how the North Atlantic Alliance has proven itself over the past year.
Sending NATO equipment outside allied territory is also something of a novelty.
This is one of many new things. I think the United States in particular recognized at some point that the war in Ukraine is not just Ukraine’s war with Russia, but “our” war in general. So, and the war of the United States.
Why did this happen?
Russia clearly questioned the international order that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union and for which the US stands guarantor. As early as 2007, Putin said at a conference in Munich that Russia would change this order. Thus, by attacking Ukraine, it was de facto that Putin, knowingly and willfully, began to physically alter the said order and declare war on the United States, who protected this order. This undermines the position of the United States as a world power. That’s how it should be read. And one should not be surprised by US activity in the face of the ongoing war in Ukraine. But not only the activities of America, but also Britain and Poland, in whose vital interest it is to maintain the existing international order.
The threat of Russia’s announced new offensive still hangs over Ukraine. There is less and less evidence that, at least if the one who can change the fate of this war, it will happen at all.
I do not see Russia having the opportunity to carry out such an operation. In fact, this operation is already underway and the effects are barely noticeable. The Russians won’t admit it because they are very inept at it. All the fighting taking place, especially in the Bakhmut area, is aimed at breaking the Ukrainian front and turning the tide of the war. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian side is increasingly announcing a counter-offensive. And I understand that the tanks that Prime Minister Morawiecki brought to Kiev today to visit them are the beginning of a stream of heavy equipment that will enable Ukraine to carry out this counter-offensive.
I said last year that there will be a phase in the war where the Ukrainians will counterattack and drive the Russians out of their territory. And this is what the Ukrainian side itself announces. And I said it would happen in the spring of 2023. I think the change from spring to summer will be a decisive moment.
The interviewer was Radoslaw Molenda
Source: wPolityce