“There is a large group of undecided voters who voted for PiS in 2019 and President Andrzej Duda in 2020. If they vote for PiS, chances are PiS will get a third term. When it comes to attracting new voters, the polarization is so great that even if we presented these opposition voters with further multi-billion zloty programs, their attitude is so emotionally conditioned that they are unlikely to change their electoral preferences. , he says in an interview with the portal wPolityce.pl Prof. Norbert Maliszewski, Secretary of State at the Prime Minister’s Chancellery, head of the Government Analyzes Center.
wPolityce.pl: In his text on the Onet portal, Andrzej Gajcy refers to PiS internal polls, according to which the ruling party currently has about 36 percent support, but it is possible to gain even more than 40 percent in the elections. to vote. Do you really have such research?
Prof. Norbert Maliszewski: As a minister in the Prime Minister’s Chancellery, I do not conduct party polls, but it is worth referring to the latest social change poll for the wPolityce.pl portal, where PiS is already reaching 38 percentage points. Moreover, if you look at the average of the polls calculated by Politico, without taking into account Kantar’s latest result, PiS’s average result for strong voters is 37 percent. So we can see that the support level for PiS, when it comes to strong voters, is 37-38 percent. Considering the structure among undecided and passive voters, it turns out that a large portion of them are 2019 PiS voters, sitting in such a “waiting room” of people wondering who to vote for. It would be a problem for the ruling party if they changed their preferences, but if you asked them who they would vote for, if they had to vote for someone, they are still PiS supporters. We hope that in an alternative situation, be it the opposition authorities or PiS in this difficult “wallet” and security situation, they will vote for PiS, because PiS is a promise of a strong Poland, close to the people, caring in that sense that even if the situation is difficult, the government has prepared shields, actions that serve to freeze high prices. Let’s take into account that this year we will have pension indexation at the level of almost 15%, and when it comes to average annual inflation it will certainly be below this level. One cannot take away PiS’s chance of a third term in office, believe in this story that we have no chance of winning, because winning is possible, and this was shown, for example, in the recent European Parliament elections. Different kinds of stories were also created for them, there was talk of bonuses for uniting the opposition, there were even polls in which the European coalition was in the lead, and the result was the exact opposite, and it was PiS that won that election by a wide margin.
That is true, but at least part of the opposition seems to have learned from that defeat. Currently, the opposition will prefer not to start from one list, but in different blocks, for example, there are many indications that a block consisting of Poland 2050 and PSL can be created, perhaps the second will be created by Links and KO, or the left will create its own block to create. In any case, there will probably not be a situation like the European Parliament elections, and at the moment all polls indicate that, when adding up the support for all opposition parties, PiS is losing.
It is worth looking at Kantar’s March 2019 poll, which created a narrative that the opposition was uniting. There were de facto two blocs there – the European coalition and there was also a left bloc. We know the outcome of those choices. Of course now the situation is different, difficult, but no matter what combination the opposition decides to enter the elections, each of these particular political misalliances, because how to deal with the Poland 2050 coalition with PSL, for example, or the Left with KO , has its own minuses. As for the poll bonus for unification, it has been known in the past that when drawing up party lists, this bonus often disappears. A good example is the aforementioned elections for the European Parliament.
How can PiS increase its support now? From what you say, you mainly want to win back voters who already voted for PiS in 2019. But, for example, Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk emphasizes in a series of interviews, including for the wPolityce.pl portal, that, in his opinion, PiS has no place to attract more voters than those who support this party based on current polls.
There are studies that have not been published in the media, which showed that there was a “flag effect” several days after the Russian attack on Ukraine. It consisted in the fact that the voters of those who were indecisive and passive, including those who voted for President Andrzej Duda in the last election, supported PiS in a difficult situation. These people remember Donald Tusk’s line, the philosophy of “there is no money and there will be no money”. When we think of social programs, we were able to maintain them in hard times, and we were unable to implement them in good times. For example, when talking about people taking loans, the Borrower Support Fund was created during PO’s reign, but when the crisis erupted in 2008-2009, guess when? In 2014, when a crisis situation arose, we were able to implement solutions within months. Voters know how Donald Tusk, the opposition, works. These are not only “wallet” problems, but also have to do with security. The PO’s potential candidate for the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Radosław Sikorski, is not only criticized in Poland, but we also see articles on the subject on Politico. How does he build Poland’s image? How should this team guarantee safety in this difficult situation?
The question is whether the voters who view the opposition and the government of the PO-PSL coalition so negatively are no longer simply those who already support PiS. Can such a story bring in new voters?
There is a large group of undecided voters who voted for PiS in 2019 and President Andrzej Duda in 2020. If they vote for PiS, chances are PiS will get a third term. When it comes to attracting new voters, the polarization is so great that even if we presented these opposition voters with further programs worth billions of zlotys, their attitudes are so emotionally conditioned that they are unlikely to change their electoral preferences is. That’s why it’s no secret here and it’s clear that we just need to re-convince the voters who voted for us before and who are now in the “waiting room” of undecided. This indecisiveness is due to the current difficult economic situation, but when this situation changes, and those voters see themselves facing the alternative of Donald Tusk’s evil rule, the motivation to vote will be greater.
In this situation, where, as you say, PiS has no better chance of winning over the opposition voters, is it profitable for PiS to propose new social programs in the campaign?
Different kinds of social programs should be proposed because even those former PiS voters expect new solutions to their problems. Perhaps they need to be mobilized with new programs. At the moment, however, I am not revealing any secrets, I am only talking about the basic mechanisms that occur in election campaigns. I cannot say how it will be performed. The election staff is responsible for making specific decisions and making them.
In general, however, the strategy for the campaign is as follows: new program proposals plus a reminder of Donald Tusk’s reign?
Certainly. In general, this is not the discovery of secrets – we will mobilize current voters to vote for PiS, and we will convince those who sit in the “waiting room” and are passive with new program proposals and arguments related to remembering it competitors’ past.
In the Onet text I already mentioned, it is presented that PiS’ strategy for the campaign includes “hunting for Tusk”, using some black PR.
If we present the alternative in this election, it will be an attempt to build a narrative that Donald Tusk is a victim here. And yes, Donald Tusk is a victim, but of his own past, of the way he ruled Poland. Not without reason in polls, eg published by Onet, Donald Tusk is one of the leaders of the mistrust ranking. In the last episode of this ranking, the distrust towards him increased by almost 7 points. because people remember what happened. Tusk is not a victim of any campaign, only people remember his pro-Russian actions, they also remember the philosophy that “there is no money and there will not be”, Donald Tusk does not know where it is buried and there is not a button to fight inflation.
In your opinion, what percentage result should PiS achieve in the election to rule alone again?
Taking into account the higher potential, PiS voters from the parliamentary elections in 2019 should be included here, plus some voters of President Andrzej Duda from 2020. The extent to which we can achieve this depends on our ideas and solutions, and whether we support the Poles convince of a strong Poland, close to the people and credibility in the implementation of the program.
However, if I understand correctly, it should be a result of more than 40 percentage points?
Only the percentage result is important here, but other things are also important. For example, how the opposition is going to the elections. If the opposition parties go to the elections separately, our result will be lower in percentage terms, and if they go in blocs, it will be higher, because then there is more polarization and the divisions are even sharper. The scenarios are very different.
Adam Stankiewicz spoke
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Source: wPolityce