Will Poland replace Germany? Berlin is aware of what will happen if the war ends with a positive outcome for Ukraine

The text was originally published on the portal: opinion.olsztyn.pl

Russia’s attack on Ukraine has triggered a mechanism that could lead to profound political change in Central and Eastern Europe. The dissolution of the Soviet Union allowed Germany to openly return to the age-old alliance between Germany/Prussia and Russia: Russia must supply the German economy with cheap raw materials, and in return the Russian elites receive as much money as they must live in fantastic luxury .

Europe and the world agreed to such connections without resistance. No one cared that the Germans had cheap gas, and the new Russians could spend their money in London, Las Vegas, Cyprus, Majorca or the Cote d’Azur. It is true that everyone knew that part of the money earned by the Kremlin was spent on armaments, but if there was peace, who could be bothered?

As a result, the Federal Republic of Germany, as the guarantor of the concluded treaty, received an unwritten but universally recognized right to dominate Central and Eastern Europe. Political domination that created an umbrella for economic expansion.

Actually, only Poland, especially the late President Lech Kaczyński, warned the world that Russia had not given up on its imperial ambitions. Europe’s perception of Russia has not been changed by the war in Chechnya, the attack and annexation of part of Georgia, the attack on Ukrainian Crimea and Donbas. In the west, gas and oil flowed in a wide river – dollars and euros in the east.

Only the change of government in Poland and the growing economic importance of Ukraine caused a rift in this stabilized world. Law and Justice has not only taken steps to gain independence from raw materials from Russia, but is also pursuing a policy against the mainstream of Europe’s elites. Warsaw loudly warned against the consequences of treating Russia as a behaving, rational country.

Russia’s open, criminal attack on Ukraine changed the image of Russia in the eyes of the world. It is no longer a cute, funny bear, but a predatory, aggressive and dangerous Siberian bear. The order based on the Berlin-Moscow alliance has been violated. The Germans realize that if it is finally broken, they will lose much of their hegemonic position in our region.

That is why they are doing everything they can to prevent Ukraine from winning the war with Russia. Hence all the distortions, delays, hesitations, the postponement of the decision to support Ukraine that will enable Kiev to win over Moscow.

The story of the Leopard tank transfer is just one spectacular example. As I write this text, the decision is said to have been made. However, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it turns out that extra obstacles pop up unexpectedly.

Fortunately, Germans cannot show so blatantly that they think selfishly, only in terms of short-term interests. Russia’s bestiality and aggressiveness made the nations of Europe finally realize that stopping Russia is the basic condition for security on our continent. Hence the decision of Sweden and Finland to join NATO and the support that European countries give to Ukraine.

The decisive role, of course, is played by the United States and its massive involvement in helping Ukraine. For the US, weakening Russia as a competitor to lead the world is a strategic goal. In addition, Russia is a potential ally of China and Iran. The billions of dollars spent to support Ukraine are rightly considered national security expenditures.

The Polish government understands the situation perfectly and, together with the president, is doing everything it can to support Ukraine without hesitation. Both material, humanitarian, military, and what is especially important – political. Without Poland’s determination to put pressure on other countries, especially Germany, Ukraine would not have been able to build such a strong support coalition. We are fighting for our safety, that is clear. We are also fighting for something more: for the status of Poles in Europe.

Berlin is aware of what will happen if the war ends with a positive outcome for Ukraine. Poland will become a very strong competitor in the battle for the position of the regional leader. The collaborative potential of Poland and Ukraine, supported by Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, will be able to redefine the map of power and influence between the Baltic and Black Seas. For Berlin, this is a dark scenario.