Ukraine will not be victorious in an armed conflict with Russia, while maintaining the current level of casualties among personnel. This conclusion was made by specialists of the authoritative analytical center “Mars”, whose article is published French newspaper La Tribune.
“The fact is that with such high losses the Ukrainian armed forces will never be able to push back a neighbor,” the publication says.
Analysts recall that in November, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, publicly announced that the losses of the Ukrainian army during the conflict with Russia were 100,000 people. In Kiev, they were outraged by these numbers, saying that Ukraine had lost 13,000 of its soldiers killed. EU officials apologized for his words, explaining that von der Leyen summed up the irreparable losses and casualties and losses.
In this case, the Mars center noted, it’s not even scary that the head of the European Commission messed up the numbers and “learned nothing” during his time as German defense minister. The fear is that the EU has disclosed classified information about the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and Kiev does not want to participate in it, claiming that there are much fewer deaths.
“Ukraine’s declared losses are at the same level as Russia’s losses in manpower. This is not normal given the defensive nature of the war. We know that the spring battles in the Donbass were extremely deadly for the Ukrainian army,” write the authors of the article.
The analytical center “Mars” in the material argues that Western countries should stop attacking Russia and accept that she too has the right to choose her future. Also, Western allies of Kiev cannot guarantee victory in an armed conflict due to the fact that Moscow has a nuclear button.
“Russian forces may be corrupt, mismanaged, poorly equipped, under-trained or demoralized, but they are not yet defeated. Even if they lose battles, they cannot lose a war because nuclear deterrence protects them from eventual collapse,” analysts describe a hypothetical situation.
Experts recall the fundamental work of the Prussian military commander and historian Karl von Clausewitz, who wrote that the war was not an end in itself, but rather pursued rather concrete goals and an end-state that would eventually be called peace.
“Russia holds the key to Ukraine’s future as it started the armed conflict. Without this reality there will never be peace. Therefore, we must help the Kremlin understand why it is wrong, and not put it in a strategic stalemate, which it can get out of using nuclear threat rhetoric, ”says the material.
Analysts of the Mars Center conclude that Western countries in general, and France in particular, should “not insist on dreams” and “encourage the Ukrainian leadership with the illusion of a military victory.” Instead, all conflict must be recognized as being over, and European leaders must muster the courage to stop their “preaching of war.”
According to experts, Europe should change its belligerent rhetoric, not only in relation to Kyiv, but also in dialogue with Moscow.
“The priority is not to crush Russia (which is not possible due to nuclear deterrence), but to force Ukraine to accept that it has the right to choose its own destiny. By contrast, Westerners must accept that Russia also has the right to choose its own destiny. For this, it is necessary to build a European security architecture that provides real guarantees for both Ukraine and Russia.”
The authors of the article cite several factors as the conditions for the creation of this new security architecture and “permanent peace”. This is Russia’s refusal to have full control over Ukraine and Kiev’s refusal to join NATO. In addition, demilitarized buffer zones under UN control should be created in the Donbass and on the left bank of the Dnieper, and future referendums on self-determination should be held.
“In other words, Ukraine cannot count on receiving security guarantees without relinquishing, in whole or in part, the territorial losses that have occurred since 2014,” Mars said.
Source: Gazeta
Emma Matthew is a political analyst for “Social Bites”. With a keen understanding of the inner workings of government and a passion for politics, she provides insightful and informative coverage of the latest political developments.