The CIS Poll and Spain’s Election Forecasts

For the first time since Sánchez took office, a CIS poll offers the People’s Party a real chance to win elections in Spain. It has long been suspected that this kind of demoscopy aims less at mapping what people want than at a calculated, sometimes biased forecast of political possibilities that suits a particular line. The result has been some notably off predictions, prompting suspicion about the reliability of CIS as a neutral instrument because, in practice, it appears to serve the government’s narrative. There is a sense that the center still expects to steer public perception, and critics would rather trust other methods of inquiry than the seemingly slanted readings from Tezanos, who appears to be shaping social attitudes more than simply reporting electoral sentiment. The Centre for Sociological Research, connected to the Presidency Ministry, is seen by some as offering a menu of readings designed to satisfy Moncloa’s appetite. With Tezanos leading the institute, the forecasts have stood out for their consistent tilt, even more so during a period of unusual political turmoil. The July barometer, which shows the PP edging ahead of the PSOE by about two points after the Andalusian outcomes and Núñez Feijóo’s arrival, continues to provoke surprise. Yet the pattern holds: predictions that seem to mobilize public opinion through a calculated advantage for socialists in polling, or alternatively, signals of a potential shift that could widen the bloc supporting the PP beyond what the CIS projected. Reality remains measured at the ballot box, and in this heat of a high-summer political summer, such readings carry a volatile edge that invites scrutiny and debate. Critics argue that the numbers may reflect strategic aims more than voter intention, while supporters insist that the data simply captures an evolving political climate. In any case, the true verdict will come only when votes are counted, a reminder that numbers on any chart are provisional until ballots are cast. The whole situation feels like a powder keg — dramatic, unsettled, and openly debated as summer heats up across the country. The conversation continues to revolve around who will command the next government and how much confidence the public places in national surveys to forecast the path ahead.