The legislative process began with an amnesty decision that has broad parliamentary backing but faces resistance from public opinion, the judiciary, and the People’s Party. Yet the government managed to gain a point of leverage. Vice president Nadia Calviño was elected to a controversial role as president of the European Investment Bank, the world’s largest multilateral lender. Calviño’s ascension places her alongside ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and EU Commission Vice President and EU Foreign Affairs Minister Josep Borrell at the top echelons of European institutions. This move is seen as a demonstration that economic policy commands a degree of acceptance in Brussels and among European partners.
Sánchez, however, remains under scrutiny. He must consider replacing the vice presidency of economics, a position that holds significant sway in Brussels and on global markets. There was a clear signal that the government would not shift too far to the left and would avoid letting the economy slide amid the challenges of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. María Jesús Montero has clashed with the Minister of Finance and the Socialist deputy secretary general on various occasions, though without dramatic conflicts, while maintaining awareness of the party’s priorities. Those who argue for stronger state resources contend with the orthodox stance in Brussels, where efforts to boost revenue through taxes on banks and electricity firms are argued to reduce deficits.
Change in the economic leadership won’t be simple, and Sánchez understands that Calviño could be delayed even after the new year when she was expected to assume her post at the EIB. The key challenge is authority. An Economy Minister who is not simultaneously the vice president would not have the same clout before the nation, before Brussels, or before the markets. This would be far from ideal, especially if the successor faces the return of European fiscal rules suspended during the pandemic and a stricter ECB stance that seeks both higher interest rates to curb inflation and a reduction in government bond purchases. The pandemic and the Ukraine conflict were major disruptions, but they also enabled a period of ultra-Keynesian policy under Sánchez, a path that now seems harder to sustain.
Could María Jesús Montero step into the role of Economy Minister while maintaining the position of vice president? Montero is not an economist by training, and she lacks deep experience with Brussels. Her political skill—navigating budget negotiations and balancing competing interests within the party—does not necessarily prepare her for frequent clashes with Yolanda Díaz or regional separatist movements.
Another possibility is José Luis Escrivá, currently focused on Digital Transformation, to become Economy Minister under Montero. This could work, provided he remains clear about pension reform and the CPI-linked approach that Escrivá has supported. He has faced skepticism from some Brussels officials, including the Office of the Spanish Chief Executive. If the term of the current Bank of Spain governor comes to an end, Escrivá could be considered for that role as a potential alternative. On the other hand, if the federal leadership in Brussels pushes for a political replacement, Hernández de Cos might be ready to pursue another leadership opportunity.
There are respected economists who could also fit into Sánchez’s framework. David Vegara and Maurici Lucena, both associated with the PSC and active in Madrid, have notable credentials. Vegara is known for his time as Secretary of State for the Economy under Pedro Solbes and has been considered for roles within the ECB, though this remains contested. Currently, Vegara leads Banco de Sabadell, while Maurici Lucena, once appreciated by Solchaga, has served as a prominent PSC deputy and later led AENA. Ángel Ubide, a long-time adviser to PSOE programs who has spent years in the United States shaping investment projects, is another economist seen as a potential core contributor. In all cases, technical expertise would aim to outweigh political considerations.
Another avenue could involve an internal arrangement with Luis Planas, the Agriculture Minister since 2018, who has extensive experience with Brussels, or Manuel de la Rocha, the economic adviser at La Moncloa. Yet these options may lack the international resonance that the job demands in a global economy.
Sánchez continues to search for Calviño’s successor while recognizing that Calviño herself does not wish to serve as a Socialist Party member in Parliament but remains wholly devoted to the president. Calviño’s family history, including her father José María Calviño’s former role as RTVE director and trusted ally of Alfonso Guerra during the era of non-private television networks, is sometimes cited in discussions about the current transition. The implication is clear: there is no simple replacement who can fully replicate Calviño’s influence and style.