In Andalusia, the left’s share across candidacies shows a broad decline. A regional survey conducted for the 2022 elections by the CIS indicates a sizable drop in the PSOE’s voting estimate, moving from about 34.7% to roughly 25.2%. For the left, Adelante Andalucía, established by Teresa Rodríguez after her split from Podemos in 2018, sits near 14.4%, nearly five points lower than Podemos alone in the previous election. The left’s fragmentation in 2015 produced three distinct candidates, and today a similar pattern exists, albeit in a different form. Across the spectrum, the trend is downwards; if 2015 saw the left surpass 60% in expressed intent, current forecasts place the right near 55% of valid votes. The CIS survey was released on a Thursday, June 2, and gathered data between May 3 and 12, with a 95.5% confidence level and a margin of error around ±2.8%, as noted in the study materials.
About a quarter of respondents select unclear or no answer, up from 21.3% in the 2015 poll and from 11% during the previous cycle when some voters opted not to participate. While turnout could rise slightly, the possibility of a decisive rightward victory, especially for the People’s Party, remains evident regardless of left mobilization efforts. If current leader assessments hold, Juanma Moreno, the PP candidate and Andalusia’s sitting president, shows a notable lead with a vote intention index around 6.28. His deputy and another PP figure, Juan A. Marín, trails with an index near 5.19. Other contenders lag behind, with the Vox candidate Macarena Olona recording the lowest score around 3.80. The PP is viewed as capable in administration, with trusted leadership, a stronger stance on regional interests, and alignment with many voters’ preferences. If national leadership signals improve on unemployment trends, some expect a tougher stance from Madrid in response.
A key hurdle for the People’s Party is the risk of not securing the 55 seats needed to govern without allies. Even in an optimal scenario, three seats from Ciudadanos would still prevent a sole majority.
In past elections, votes were dispersed among four left groups; on the upcoming ballot day, June 19, the field would narrow to three: Andalusia Forward, Adelante Andalucía, and PSOE. The right would be represented by Vox, Ciudadanos, and the People’s Party. Previously, only two center-right options existed. The current proportional allocation under the D’Hondt method does not visibly favor any bloc. The left’s internal divisions—frictions among Susana Díaz, Pedro Sánchez, and the tensions between United We Can and Izquierda Unida—have translated into a tangible impact on collective results. The left would benefit from a clearer lineup before local elections, and voters tend to reward coherent choices rather than splintered coalitions.
Overall, the CIS projection suggests the PP holds a clear upper bound of around forty-nine seats, with potential gains from Ciudadanos if they secure representation, though a standalone PP government remains unlikely. A coalition with Vox could become feasible if the numbers align, with Vox projected to win between 17 and 21 seats. Additionally, the PP might benefit from abstentions on the left to negotiate concessions. Such a scenario would depend on political dynamics and behind‑the‑scenes negotiations shaping the final makeup of a regional administration, according to CIS analysis attribution.