Watching how mortgages shift is a window into the broader economy. Mortgages already touch a large slice of daily life, and for many households they will remain central for years. In many respects, debt is now as normal a part of life as schooling or health concerns. Some households even mark their mortgage anniversaries with celebrations, complete with cake, gifts, and promotions to encourage early repayments. The aim is to shave time off the loan, lowering total costs or reducing the outstanding balance, and sometimes choosing both options. These moments reveal the passions behind the numbers.
Recent personal reflections from the author show a similar moment of pause. Even with practical thoughts about long-term obligations, there is a resolve to stay informed, to study analyses, track trends, and compare figures. The mood in current data is not uplifting; the trajectory feels sober, perhaps even quiet, rather than cheerful.
Looking at the numbers: in 2022, banks issued 15.5% fewer housing loans than in 2021. At the same time, loan refusals rose sharply, with nearly half of all applicants facing a rejection. Over the past three years the share of mortgage rejections has trended upward. In early 2020, about one in four applicants were rejected; by early 2021, roughly one in three faced denial; a year ago, the rate reached about one in three and a half. Average mortgage terms have lengthened markedly, with new housing contracts stretching beyond 25 years, up from around 22 years in 2021. This elongation comes even as the typical apartment size bought on credit decreased from 48 to 44 square meters.
The implication is clear: demand remains robust, even as lenders tighten the flow of credit. There are more people seeking mortgage debt than banks are able or willing to approve, so housing needs continue to outpace supply. While some observers mention investors buying rental property, the data here centers on individuals financing modest homes for themselves or their families. These are not wholesale market speculators but ordinary buyers who put down about 10% and borrow the rest to secure a modest home for life or for future generations. The label investor might be attached by some, but it is not a given; the distinction between personal dwelling and investment can be blurred in practice. Real estate investment appears less compelling today, making dramatic bank-driven shifts unlikely.
So why does the gap between housing demand and approved loans persist? It is not due to banks suffering losses on mortgages. If anything, the mortgage sector still carries a low level of bad loans, with a small uptick but not a systemic problem. The rise in rejections is more plausibly tied to a smaller pool of financially suitable applicants rather than to deteriorating loan quality. Concurrently, incomes have cooled and loan costs have risen. Interest rates rose by roughly 2–3% on average, even as preferential programs persisted but looked less generous than before. Yet a sharp collapse in housing prices never materialized. Prices paused, retreated slightly in some markets, but did not crash; the big surge from 2020 remains a memory rather than a looming pattern, with price increases concentrated in certain periods and places rather than across the board.
Many buyers in recent years found themselves squeezed by the rapid price ascent. Those who planned to purchase in 2020 faced higher valuations that eroded their down payments. Not everyone rushed into consumer credit, and some waited, hoping for a price correction that never fully materialized. Even now, not all residential projects have cleared, and it would be incorrect to assume that discounted units will suddenly flood the market. A revival of social leasing could offer relief, with the state potentially supporting developers to rent units to the public as part of a broader housing strategy.
Another trend worth noting is the expansion of mortgage maturities. People extend loan terms to bridge gaps in income, a tactic that stretches debt but preserves monthly cash flow. Some borrowers choose longer terms with smaller monthly payments, while others take a cautious route, depositing extra funds each month in hopes of paying the loan down more quickly. In a volatile period, this is a prudent approach. Yet it remains challenging to balance longer terms with the reality of wage growth. In 2022, the average monthly payment in major regions rose significantly, reflecting a broader affordability squeeze even as average salaries vary by city and region. Overall, the financial landscape for borrowers shows long horizons and careful planning, with many households facing substantial monthly obligations that shape life choices for years to come.
In the end, a mortgage often represents a signal of solvency for households that can plan more than a few years ahead. The reality remains that long-term planning is difficult, and access to credit is not guaranteed for everyone. What matters is the ongoing evaluation of personal finances, interest costs, and the evolving housing market, all of which influence decisions about homeownership now and in the future.
The narrative presented reflects one observer’s perspective and may differ from editorial positions or official analyses.