In light of Ukraine’s advances and shifts in Europe’s energy landscape, the social and economic effects of the conflict are being mitigated through informed policy and steadfast aid. The overall war strategy remains aimed at supporting Ukraine effectively, without engaging in counterproductive dialogue that could stall momentum.
First, Western intelligence and allied military assistance have given Ukraine a measurable advantage on the battlefield, leading to three notable front-line gains. On April 2, 2022, Kyiv’s surrounding region was brought back under Ukrainian control, aligning with longstanding aims to protect the capital. In the second week of September, Ukrainian forces liberated Kharkiv with a rapid offensive that disrupted enemy plans. Then, on November 9, the Russian army announced withdrawal from Kherson, a provincial center recaptured by Ukraine on November 11, shifting the front toward the Dnieper River. By March 2022, Russia occupied roughly 27% of Ukraine’s territory, but estimates show a reduction to about 14% by November 12, shrinking the occupied area to 86,557 square kilometers (from 161,000). These shifts reflect the effects of coordinated international support and determined Ukrainian defense. (source: Institute for the Study of War)
Secondly, Europe’s response to the energy crisis caused by the conflict has produced tangible results despite a tough backdrop. The European Council adopted a guideline to fill gas storage to at least 85% by year-end 2022, a target that was exceeded with storage levels surpassing 95% by late November. In parallel, the EU agreed to cap the price of Russian crude at 60 euros per barrel and imposed a broad embargo on crude oil imports from Russia, with certain transitional arrangements. These measures aim to curb Kremlin revenue while preserving secure energy supply for member states. The REPowerEU plan, approved mid-December, seeks to diversify supply, reduce dependence on Russia, and accelerate the transition to cleaner energy. Additionally, building on regional approaches, an Iberian-type price cap for gas was adopted at 180 euros per megawatt-hour on December 19. (sources: European Council announcements; REPowerEU plan)
Third, while living costs remain elevated, inflation in the European Union has shown signs of easing. Higher energy prices had pushed up consumer prices, but targeted policies and new agreements with alternative suppliers helped moderate CPI trends, with November showing a dip in the euro area. Welfare initiatives at the national level have partially offset inflation’s burden on families and businesses. Yet there is a call for a joint European approach that bundles relief measures with broader social investments, including a European Family and Business Support Plan to complement pandemic recovery efforts.
Despite these gains, aggression persists and new challenges require action. The European Union and its allies should maintain military aid to Ukraine to sustain the effort against bombardments and to reclaim remaining occupied areas. This includes supplying long-range systems and missiles, in addition to existing anti-air defenses and ammunition, rather than focusing solely on short-range solutions. (source: defense analyses)
Equally important is addressing the humanitarian strain created by ongoing hostilities and harsh winter conditions. The strategy should prioritize delivering generators, heating equipment, fuel, thermal blankets, warm clothing, tanker trucks, and bottled water, complementing ongoing aid. A targeted Winter Special Humanitarian Package could bolster current relief items and ensure vulnerable populations receive essential support during the colder months.
While the union did not abstain from the challenge, it must not lose resolve. The EU is urged to stand with Ukraine, learn from the conflict’s lessons, and resist pressure that undermines international law. Upholding these principles remains central to global stability and regional security.
Ukraine’s victory is viewed as a cornerstone for restoring international order and reinforcing the security of Europe. The conflict also underscores the value of a robust defense posture, aligning with strategic concepts proposed by European security leadership to strengthen collective resilience and deterrence across the North Atlantic area.