Can Europe chart its own course beyond the United States in a way that stands up to today’s and tomorrow’s crises?
Many observers question whether Europe can build and sustain an independent geopolitical strategy capable of meeting its own security and economic needs without relying on Washington. There is a sense that trust among partners would have to grow to accept a shared leadership that differs from the traditional US-led model, while the costs of such a shift would need careful distribution across member states.
Take Poland as an example. It often signals skepticism toward Berlin and Paris in favor of a closer alliance with the United States. The aim appears to be to position itself as a premier ally within Europe, prioritizing a robust transatlantic bond even as it navigates regional ambitions.
On the continental stage, the question continues to loom: can Europe afford to project military commitments while maintaining political unity and economic resilience? Some leaders suggest that Europe could shoulder greater responsibility while still accommodating Washington’s strategic needs, but doing so would require a clear consensus about burden-sharing and alliance priorities.
The 2020s brought a climate of strain: financial pressures and divergent immigration policies have sharpened north-south tensions, while the war in Ukraine has created a north-south and east-west divide that has tested the cohesion of the European project. The term old Europe versus new Europe has surfaced in public discourse, reflecting lingering anxieties about competing visions for the region’s future.
With limited exceptions, witnessed at NATO and EU summits, unity among European governments in confronting Russia remains fragile if conflict persists. Public patience has its limits, especially if costs and risks extend over time.
Commentators describe Europe during the Ukraine crisis as exposed to a moment of geopolitical vulnerability. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the United States has managed to tilt the balance of economic power away from its European partners, altering the traditional dynamic of the transatlantic relationship. Recent data show shifts in GDP relations where European economies exceed or trail behind US indicators depending on the year, signaling a changing economic order with profound strategic implications.
The currency landscape is part of this shift. The dollar remains a dominant reserve currency, while the euro accounts for a smaller portion of foreign exchange reserves. This disparity gives Washington leverage to impose sanctions and influence global financial flows with comparatively less constraint from alliance partners. In response, Russia and China have pursued moves to reduce dollar dependence, favoring ruble and yuan transactions in some cross-border trade, a trend supported by many nations seeking to diversify away from Western-dominated payment systems.
As the balance of power evolves, the technology sector underscores the divergence between Europe and the United States. The United States continues to host some of the world’s leading tech firms, and European ecosystems are increasingly challenged to match this dominance. Brussels and member states have pursued regulatory actions against major platforms while exploring avenues to cultivate indigenous alternatives, a strategy starkly different from the rapid tech accumulation seen elsewhere. Global South countries often express skepticism toward Western sanctions regimes and advocate for more balanced, multipolar economic norms, complicating Western efforts to maintain a united front on tech governance and strategic supply chains.
Finally, the integration of new partners into the European framework has been a defining, yet polarizing, aspect of the EU’s trajectory. The rapid expansion of European security structures after the end of the Cold War generated both strategic advantages and political frictions, especially when perceived as external leverage against other regional powers. The United States and its close ally the United Kingdom have influenced the pace and scope of this integration, shaping debates about sovereignty, alliance obligations, and the long-term trajectory of European security in a world of shifting geopolitical realities.
In this complex landscape, the path forward for Europe hinges on a pragmatic synthesis of national interests, alliance commitments, and a credible plan to adapt to new economic and security realities. A future in which Europe acts with greater strategic autonomy is not simply a theoretical aspiration; it requires durable partnerships, credible deterrence, and a clear framework for shared responsibilities that resonates with citizens across the continent. Attribution: analysis drawn from contemporary geopolitical assessments and policy discussions. (attribution: CFR; policy briefings)