China has responded to US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan with ominous remarks and launched the largest military exercises in recent times around the island. However, to outsiders all this is still “words, words” or “sword clatter”. While some of us are predicting that World War III will almost begin, after a determined 82-year-old woman slapped President Xi. But he also fooled Biden. He had said the day before that his visit was not a good idea right now. But it turned out that the speaker did not obey the president. And also a party member. And what, it turned out, could it be?
So far, formidable China seems to be a “paper tiger – a threatening dragon” (Chairman Mao once liked to repeat: “There is no need to be afraid of imperialism, imperialism is a paper tiger”). And that most of us will only be happy as long as they choose to act against Taiwan by means of economic blockade and sanctions, rather than opening a second front against the same “imperialism” (the collective West).
It “rings” slowly. Although Chinese leaders (speaking of the pressure on the Russian Federation) do not get tired of repeating that sanctions are ineffective and inefficient.
But what if Beijing still dares to forcibly return Taiwan to its “home port”? Or it will suddenly happen on its own – sometimes, after all, the “sword swing” involuntarily turns into a real battle. What might this Sino-Chinese war look like?
We should start with the fact that the ancient island of Formosa was a solid fortress. It will have to be taken by forcing the Taiwan Strait, which is about 130 km wide at its narrowest point. Now, of course, Chinese troops approached the island and held exercises. However, the forces involved are still not enough for a full-scale invasion or even the capture of the entire region. A large amount of manpower and equipment will have to be straitened. In addition, the dozens of small islands scattered around Taiwan (in the strait that separates it from mainland China) could each become a point of resistance.
Compared to such operations, the landing of the Western allies of the USSR in Normandy in June 1944 is a low-power military “special operation”. Later, in France, crossing the relatively narrow English Channel (at its narrowest point – 32 km), about 400 thousand troops landed, about 4 thousand ships participated in Operation Overlord.
And the Taiwanese coast is not the endless sandy beaches of Normandy, but many rocks overgrown with forests. And there are about a dozen beaches where one can go ashore. Even if you manage to land a large landing force, you will have to make your way through a densely populated area to the capital Taipei and lead bloody city battles. With a population of 24 million, its density exceeds 660 per square kilometer. For comparison, the population density of Ukraine, where there are active hostilities with significant losses among the civilian population, is 73 people per square kilometer. km.
It seems that the ratio of military forces is clearly in China’s favor. About 2 million people of the PRC are under arms, only 965 thousand of them are in the army. Military experts believe that in case of war, Taiwan can quickly put 400-450 thousand people on the field. Taiwan currently has 165,000 armed forces and a total of 1.6 million reservists.
Estimates of the size of the “exit” China must take to seize the island vary widely: the “Optimal” occupation force of 400 thousand to 2 million is 1.2 million. This will give defenders a 3x advantage in manpower, which is believed to be necessary for a successful attack.
In recent years, the Chinese military has been going through a large-scale modernization phase. Third-party experts estimate China’s military budget (figure classified) at around $290 billion (US$800 billion). The PRC managed to create a modern fleet, the number of which has already exceeded the American fleet (the PRC has 360 warships, the USA has 300, and a new aircraft carrier was recently launched in the PRC). There is an equipped fleet of fighter jets, including those created using stealth technology. In total, there are about 1,600 combat vehicles in the PRC. There are also Russians. American estimates of whether the PRC has medium-range and shorter-range missiles fluctuate around 2,000. PRC long-range artillery could theoretically hit Taiwan in the strait.
However, thanks to the United States and other Western countries, the Taiwanese military is very well equipped, including modern air defense systems and a good air force grouping: about half of the 411 fighter jets are modernized American F-16s and the French Mirage. lari. At the same time, planes are located in underground airports dug in the mountains and take off directly from there through special tunnels. In general, the underground coastal fortification system stretches for tens of kilometers.
At first, Taiwan will receive intelligence and other electronic support, at least from the United States and NATO, in the event of an invasion. The current US-Taiwan security agreement does not automatically keep America on Taiwan’s side in case of war (as it used to be) – everything will be decided by the president. There is a feeling that the US will try to avoid a direct conflict with China until the very end. However, in such a collision, their superiority (including strategic weapons) will be great. The nearest US bases are located on the Japanese island of Okinawa, the Japanese port of Yokosuka – the home of the US 7th Fleet, as well as a base on the island of Guam in the Indian Ocean. Air Force bases in the Philippines are 800 km away. There is also now an aircraft carrier group near Taiwan.
If the war is to be fought in full force, America will have to use almost its entire navy.
However, it is unlikely to come before the war. China, which has not experienced large-scale hostilities since 1979 (there was a brief war with Vietnam), will try to “show toughness” with a blockade or harsh sanctions. Beijing does not need a war for economic reasons. China is heavily dependent on Taiwanese and American technologies, including chips and processors. A war could devastate Taiwan’s electronics industry, and it would be an irreparable loss for China. Dependence on American technology is even higher, where “sovereignty” seems unlikely to be achieved until the targeted date, 2025. This is why Chinese companies are so meticulous in complying with US sanctions against Russia. The mere word “delisting” (from American stock markets) terrifies multi-billion dollar giants like Alibaba, not to mention secondary sanctions, apparently the other day fears that Huawei will completely flee Russia (already under US sanctions).
America is still the most important sales market for China. Without America, Chinese industry would simply stall: Last year, China sold $506 billion worth of goods to the United States (purchased $151 billion). Beijing holds at least a trillion dollars in US Treasuries. Other American securities – about the same number. All like a hot chestnut, you can’t get rid of it right away. Noone.
China will prefer to gradually “envelop” Taiwan with economic integration, seeking the peaceful return of the island to its “home port”. Most likely, with the formula “One country – two systems” (like Hong Kong). Having solved this problem by the middle of the century, the Celestial Empire has nowhere to rush. They believe that they have eternity before them and there is no need to fuss. Considering that war is a continuation of politics in other ways, China traditionally prefers to buy rather than buy by military force. It always works cheaper.
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the editors’ position.
Source: Gazeta
