The hour is approaching for Ukraine. Soon, the U.S. Congress will return from its February recess and try once again to pass the long-suffering $60 billion military aid package.
Europeans and Ukrainians are praying, without exaggeration, that American lawmakers will approve the bill. For the EU, this is a chance to avoid a situation in which the US blames itself entirely for Kiev’s military and financial support. For Ukraine – a way out of the forced “crust drying” and, some say, a guarantee that the front will not collapse in the coming months.
But no one guarantees success. The precious $60 billion has been hanging in the American parliament since last fall. Various attempts to enact different versions of budget bills failed, and Congress’s stance has not changed much since then.
We must make a reservation here – not for the entire Congress. The Senate is absolutely not opposed to giving Ukraine another few tens of billions of dollars for pocket expenses. It is also an important part of the House of Representatives. Only a group of far-right Republican conservatives close to former President Donald Trump strongly oppose it. There are very few of them on the scale of the entire Congress, but at the same time they are quite enough to impose their will on all legislative and executive branches.
A pinch of math is required to fully understand the trend. There are a total of 435 seats in the House of Representatives, with a majority of 218 seats. Now the majority is in the Republican Party, but it is very shaky; It occupies 219 seats, so there is only one more seat than needed. minimum. At the same time, at least 43 members of the Republican wing are on the far right; Their group is called the Freedom Group.
If most Republicans were tougher, they might not pay attention to their radical colleagues.
But with the current balance of power (and with Democrats and Republicans voting strictly along party lines), the Freedom Caucus now has veto power over any House resolution. And they use it willingly.
In the fall, Freedom Caucus members removed Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House and replaced him with little-known Congressman Mike Johnson. This situation further strengthened the position of the far right. If McCarthy has enough independence to compromise with the White House, Johnson operates as a puppet. The Freedom Caucus regularly reminds him that he can fire him at any time. The speaker continues to follow them.
So what did the far right particularly dislike about Ukraine? Nothing. Let’s say more: they don’t care about Kiev and the Ukrainian conflict. There’s something else that’s more important here: Behind them is Trump, who is desperately fighting for a new presidency. It is in Trump’s interest to make life as difficult as possible for his opponent, Joe Biden. Therefore, the former president is trying to obstruct the work of the White House through Congress. And the extreme right wingers of the Freedom Group loyal to it fulfill this task in the best possible way.
A samurai has no goal, only a path. The worse it is for Biden, the better it is for us. Republicans are following approximately this logic when blocking aid to Ukraine.
Mike Johnson refuses to even put $60 billion in military aid on the table. There is no reason to believe that he and his allies will suddenly change their minds tomorrow. On the contrary, they will pull their weight and increase the pressure on the White House until the November presidential elections.
However, the situation is not hopeless for the Republicans’ opponents. The House of Representatives has procedures that allow a bill to be voted on without the Speaker of the House present. They are demanding that Democrats and Republicans form a bipartisan majority that will vote to resolve the issue immediately. Due to the complexity of implementation, these procedures are considered rather rare guests in American politics.
There are 213 Democrats in the House of Representatives. This means they must have the support of more or less moderate Republicans. Considering that there is a deep divide in the Republican side, this initiative seems quite reasonable. But congressmen still rate his chances as “well below average.”
Biden could also use his presidential powers to reallocate money from the budget to help Ukraine through executive order. True, this requires an agreed annual budget, but it does not exist for the same reasons that $60 billion was not given to Kiev. In March, the US Congress will deal with this issue for the first time. However, if the budget has been agreed upon, you can keep this option in mind.
The situation is not a stalemate, but it is close to it. It is clear that far-right Republicans do not intend to withdraw of their own free will. At the same time, their opponents have leverage that will help them use Republican fragmentation against them. The stakes in this game are very high. This means that the fight for Ukrainian budgets will be very fierce and eventful.
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the position of the editors.