As winter spreads its wings, Ukraine’s future is darkening. A little more than six months ago, the counteroffensive fueled dreams of a quick victory against the decrepit Russian arms industry: a lightning strike that would inflict a humiliating defeat on Putin. Leopard tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles, ATACMS cruise missiles and Storm Shadows were mentioned. The internal rebellion of the mercenary battalion Wagner Group, which began an unsuccessful march on Moscow, seemed to underline internal divisions among the country’s elite. China maintained a ghostly silence, like an aircraft carrier ready to decide the future of a naval war. The West’s fatigue was still overshadowed by the optimism peddled by the media. How would Russia confront the military technology of Europe and America?
The fact is that the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed and none of the successive Maginot lines of the invading army were breached. Autumn rains came, followed by snow, cold and darkness, spreading great anxiety over Kiev. Zelensky is now openly talking about implementing a different strategy: defend the region in 2024 and advance to 2025 if possible. By then, Trump may have won the presidential election. In Eastern Europe, much of the future is decided in America, not the EU.
For us Europeans, the latter is particularly important. This points to the depth of many of our evils: for example, the persistence of often hostile and irreconcilable national interests that hinder the progress of the Union. The absence of an adult geostrategic policy that allows prioritization of specific objectives and progress in the design of clear lines of action also highlights the fragility of the community project. The promises made to Ukraine were invalidated due to the low production capacity of the sector, which did not want to expand itself other than budget guarantees for new investments. The same thing is happening in many strategic sectors: from the energy transition to the green economy, from R&D to housing, from Artificial Intelligence to global Internet companies. What message does the Union send to the world, despite all previous promises, being unable to defend Ukraine against Russian aggression? What message does it send when it shows that it is incapable of establishing an autonomous policy regarding the security of the continent? Good words do not equal good actions. In fact, words and actions can often contradict each other.
The example of Ukraine can be extended to the face of the Union. The weakness is evident on the southern borders, under the pressure of immigration and the class divide that is eroding the post-war ideal of a society of large middle classes. In a global context, Europe has become a Mecca for foreign investment, but not an engine of development or growth. Between austerity and fiscal expansion, society’s cyclothymia does not hide this lack of direction. Bureaucratic hypertrophy brakes the wheels of growth without providing any additional stability. Populism of all kinds takes advantage of this chain of vulnerabilities. More than ever, the union needs to be reliable and chart a course. Ukraine reminds us of this every day. And perhaps in a few months Washington will double its pressure on us.