The legislature started with the amnesty decision. It has a majority in parliament, but public opinion, judges and the PP are against it. But the Government gained one point. Vice president Nadia Calvino He was elected to the controversial presidency of the European Investment Bank (EIB). The world’s largest multilateral lender. Calviño thus joins ECB vice president Luis de Guindos and Commission vice president and EU Foreign Minister Josep Borrell at the top of the European institutions. A success because it shows that economic policy is at least accepted in Europe.
But Sánchez has not escaped the cross. He needs to replace the vice president of economics, who is highly valued in Brussels and the markets. It was a guarantee that the Government would not shift to the left and the economy would not get out of control (more than other countries) due to the pandemic and Ukraine. He got along well with himself. María Jesús Montero, He confronted the Minister of Finance and the PSOE deputy general secretary and vice president (with clashes but without blood), who knew what the party wanted and could do. Yolanda Diaz Those who believe that the resources of the state are unlimited. Even taxes on banks and electricity companies have been ‘swallowed’ by the orthodox in Brussels because they reduce the deficit by increasing revenue.
Changing won’t be easy and Sánchez knows itbecause unofficial media said Calviño could be delayed even after the beginning of January, when he was supposed to take office at the EIB. The first problem is gallons. A Minister of Economy who is not a vice president will not have the same authority before the country, before Brussels and before the markets. This would not be ideal, especially if his successor faces the return of EU fiscal rules suspended since the pandemic and a tougher stance from the ECB, which wants both higher interest rates to combat inflation and reduced government bond purchases. . The pandemic and Ukraine were two big problems, but they allowed an ultra-Keynesian Sánchez, which is now impossible.
Could it also be María Jesús Montero? The vice president in charge of the economy and a prestigious Minister of Economy next to him? Montero is neither an economist nor does he know Brussels, and his political role (negotiating and then balancing budgets) does not recommend strong clashes with Yolanda Díaz or the independentists.
Could José Luis Escrivá, currently working in Digital Transformation, become Minister of Economy in the Montero administration? Yes, but then why not leave it at Social Security until you get relief? Escrivá is a competent economist who ‘adapted’ to Sánchez’s political goals (pension with CPI) and was therefore ‘burned’ in front of the CEOE. And he may be in doubt before the Orthodox of Brussels. On the other hand, if Hernández de Cos is forcibly replaced next term, he may become the governor of the Bank of Spain.
And Sánchez has respected economists. Two –David Vegara and Maurice Lucena– Pasqualista They come from PSC but perform well in Madrid. Vegara was Pedro Solbes’s Secretary of State for the Economy and could have been an advisor to the ECB, but the PP vetoed him. Today he is the leader of Banco de Sabadell. Maurici Lucena, once Solchaga’s favorite student, was an influential PSC deputy in Parliament, and the Sánchez Government made him president of the AENA. And then there is Ángel Ubide, perhaps the most Sanchista of all, who has collaborated deeply in PSOE programs but has been working in the United States for years and is involved in a significant investment fund. In all three, the technical profile outweighs the political.
You can also opt for an internal arrangement and Luis Planas, Minister of Agriculture since 2018, Someone who knows Brussels very well. Or Manuel de la Rocha, the economic advisor at Moncloa. But they have little appeal in the international economic world.
Sánchez still doesn’t know how to fill the shoes of Calviño, who does not want to be a socialist MP but is completely devoted to the president. And his father, José María Calviño, was the director of RTVE and confidant of Alfonso Guerra in the days when there were no private television networks. No, there are not two Calvinos.