Russia will launch a social credit program instead of concessional mortgages. Moreover, no one hides the fact that this measure is aimed at supporting developers, not the population. Otherwise, they say, they will not be able to deliver the planned volumes – the commissioning of 30 million m2 is threatened. m.Everything about this news is interesting. And how can the mysterious “social loan program” differ fundamentally from concessional mortgages? And why should we keep building new housing if 60% of existing new buildings don’t run out? And what to do in the future with the bad housing that has appeared in large numbers in the country in a (failed) attempt to reduce the cost of real estate. Why do we need construction for construction’s sake?
The question of what a new social credit program could be seems like the most meaningless question. Maybe even those who started this don’t know the answer to this anymore. Something vague is said about strengthening targeting. Translated into Russian, this means that you need to give “not just to everyone”; As you know, you can’t have enough for everyone. However, construction can only be achieved through mass demand. They also say subsidy programs must be in the public interest. But here again nothing is clear. We have repeatedly heard that construction is the locomotive of the Russian economy. Therefore, the interests of the state and developers overlap. Or isn’t it still like that? After the interest rate increase, when the difference paid by the budget to the banks is no longer limited to 2-3 percent and reaches 5-6 percent, it may turn out that walking together is not that fun anymore. But then how can we cry for the 30 million square feet of space that was probably lost? M?
And here the question arises with all its inevitability: where to place these hypothetical meters. For example, in August the media reported that 60% of new buildings were unsold. In some regions their share reached 75%. Was the problem resolved within a month? Are new apartments selling like hot cakes? So there didn’t seem to be any excitement. Bankers boast cheerful statistics on the volume of mortgages issued, but its growth looks impressive only in comparison with the frankly disastrous 2022. Yes, of course, many people rushed for loans after the key interest rate was increased in order to have time to get a loan at the same interest rate. But many had their loans cut due to tougher conditions (increased down payment, new income requirements). Analysts have estimated that, under the most optimistic estimates, it will take three to five years to sell all of the unused concrete. So no, the problem is not solved.
In general, the locomotive of the economy is a bit… Has it stopped? If! Construction does not stop. It’s like a giant concrete mixer has gone crazy and won’t come to its senses. It seems that there is no possibility of building anymore; It is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain quality, at least a similar one, even if there is no demand. And new neighborhoods are growing, newly constructed high-rise buildings are soaring into the sky, and usable land space is being saved.
Quality! This is a different story. Amid the renovation noise, Khrushchev buildings are being criticized. And they say that they are cramped, do not meet modern spatial requirements and are almost made of cardboard. But excuse me, what about 12-15 meter studios? More cardboard walls assembled like Lego. It’s cluttered and drafty on 25 floors. Clustered with other similar small rooms, they are so close, almost intimate, that you can even hear the neighbors’ whispers. You’d better be lucky with your neighbors. What if behind the wall, 15 meters away, there is a cheerful big family from a friendly Central Asian republic? Think larger economy class apartments are better? Many of them are built with the expectation that part of such housing will be used for social programs such as orphans, disabled people, large families. But no one tries such categories. So when will all this treasure be replenished? Many of Khrushchev’s buildings were built, at least initially, as temporary housing. What is going on here? Yes, most of the buildings built today need to be demolished before they can be put into operation.
By the way, I gained this belief from my personal experiences. Unfortunately, I had the imprudence to make some contact with the beauty. Three years ago I was looking for a new apartment in Peterhof for my family. I was also thinking about new buildings; We have a new and small neighborhood. I once came to look at one of the options on a house that was four or five years old at the time. I look and there are some wrinkles on the wallpaper. They caught my attention so much that I decided to explore this phenomenon in more detail with my hands. I touched it and noticed there were cracks. I looked in the bathroom and there they were. Then I read wonderful things about these houses. It turned out that they were built contrary to technology, and as the buildings settled, the walls began to sag, some naturally fell, and neighbors joyfully greeted each other without leaving their apartments. On this occasion, Beglov even came and tried to somehow calm the happy new settlers. Later the walls were strengthened with some kind of support at state expense and the efforts of local service workers (the contractor was already bankrupt by that time). Overall terrible.
And no, this is not an isolated story. These kinds of stories have cliffhangers. Usually St. They wrote about St. Petersburg that 95% of new housing is rented with violations. Moreover, with serious violations: roof leakage, freezing of walls, improper ventilation, depressurization of seams, noise and lack of waterproofing.
How could anyone in their right mind buy such a thing as property? If you don’t live on your own, rent initially. So who will film this? Poor students, immigrants, business travelers, thrifty tourists, young people who moved to a big city for happiness and various unfortunate people in a difficult life situation – women with difficult fates, running away from abusers, divorcees who left their families “at home” leaving everything to insidious ex-wives ( We note in parentheses anything that does not belong to them). Of course, the number of such citizens is not infinite. It’s at least good that generations are changing and graduating students are always replaced by young freshmen, and husbands and wives do not stop divorcing (for owners of economy class apartments this is good).
But the number of ordinary investors who are ready to invest in square meters with their own or borrowed funds is gradually decreasing. There is less money, loans are more expensive, and the profitability of such businesses has been falling in recent years, and vice versa. Mass purchases of construction assets by the public will not occur in the near future. Meanwhile, developers continue to increase volumes. The state still doesn’t say, “Don’t cook the pot.” I wonder what will happen next. How do we get out of this impasse? Maybe it is true that after the renovation of Khrushchev buildings, new buildings will be renovated? In fact, everything is activity. What difference does it make: to build or disassemble, the main thing is that everything is in use.
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the position of the editors.