Overview of Winter Travel Seat Growth Across Major Destinations
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has not halted the appeal of two competing winter destinations that rival the Canary Islands for sun seekers: Türkiye and Egypt. Despite regional tensions, flight seats to the Red Sea coast of Egypt and the spa areas around Antalya remain readily available through March 2024. This winter season is notable for a 43% increase in tourism capacity to Türkiye and Egypt compared with the 2022-2023 period. In contrast, seats to the Canary Islands have risen more modestly, by 4% year over year. While overall flight capacity to the archipelago remains higher than for the main rivals, the growth pace is slower, suggesting that Ankara and Cairo are poised to gain steadier footholds in the Canary Islands’ traditional market for winter travelers.
The findings come from Mabrian Technologies, a firm specializing in big data and tourism intelligence. The latest forecast analyzes four key winter holiday macro-regions that drive global travel from November through March: the Caribbean, Türkiye-Egypt, Asia-Pacific, and the Canary Islands. Among these, the least growth in airline seats is seen for the Canary Islands, despite strong overall capacity.
Earlier winter season data show 11.15 million seats to the archipelago. This year, seats rose to 11.62 million, an increase of about 470,000 travelers. The resulting growth rate is 4.2 percent, lower than the gains recorded by the other three winter markets. Some observers describe this performance as modest yet resilient in a shifting travel landscape.
Caribbean
+15.1%
- Airlines are scheduled to operate to Caribbean destinations through March 31, 2024, adding about 1.81 million seats to a total of 13.82 million. The annual rise stands at 15.1 percent.
Canary Islands
+4.2%
- Seat bookings for the Canary Islands from November 1 through March 31 total 11.62 million, roughly 470,000 more seats than the prior winter season, a modest 4.2 percent increase.
Türkiye-Egypt
+43%
- Flight capacity to Türkiye and Egypt increases from 3.16 million seats to 4.51 million, marking a 43 percent rise.
Pacific Asia
+16%
- Major Asia-Pacific destinations plan 1.75 million seats, up about 16.6 percent.
Caribbean leadership remains strong, expanding by 15 percent to reach 13.82 million seats. This growth reinforces the region’s appeal to American travelers and solidifies its top position in the global tourism market. The Canary Islands rank second with 11.62 million seats, widening the gap despite the greater distance from many Caribbean hotspots such as Puerto Rico, Cuba, and Mexican destinations. The design of winter travel now shows a broader spread of seats that supports travelers seeking sun and value across multiple regions.
One year earlier, the Caribbean held a lead of about 860,000 seats. Looking ahead, the schedule includes roughly 2.2 million more Caribbean seats than those planned for the Canary Islands. Türkiye and Egypt sit in third place with 4.51 million seats, which is about 1.35 million more than in the 2022-2023 season. This shift narrows the Canary Islands’ advantage from nearly 8.0 million seats the previous year to just over 7.1 million today, signaling that Antalya and the Red Sea coast are drawing a greater share of the winter audience.
Asia-Pacific plans total 1.75 million seats, a smaller absolute figure but with a robust 16 percent increase. In summary, Mabrian analysts describe the Canary Islands as showing a comparatively modest growth rate against 2022, yet note that overall capacity remains above pre-pandemic levels from the 2018-2019 season. The trend highlights a broadening field of options for winter travelers who prioritize price, infrastructure, and destination appeal.
The rise in Eastern Mediterranean seat supply stems from improved traveler perceptions of safety after past security incidents, coupled with better infrastructure and a stronger image for these destinations. Operators are drawn to competitive hotel pricing this season, and regions have invested in upgrading facilities and services to attract visitors. This combination helps explain why security improvements, accessible pricing, and enhanced travel experiences are guiding choices for holiday planners this winter.
Looking ahead, analysts emphasize that the current elevated capacity reflects a strategy to rebuild confidence among potential visitors while maintaining affordability. The evolving security landscape, ongoing price competitiveness, and ongoing improvements in destination management will continue to shape the trajectory of winter tourism across these regions.