The wholesale electricity market saw a notable price movement this Monday, with the short-term price dipping to 93.2 euros per megawatt hour, after a drop of 57.8 percent from its earlier highs. This marks the lowest value achieved in December according to the latest results from the wholesale market auction and reflects the influence of several market factors at play in the Iberian region.
Data from the Iberian Electricity Market Operator shows that, if the so-called Iberian mechanism limiting natural gas prices for electricity generation were not in place, tomorrow’s wholesale price would sit at 204.5 euros per megawatt hour, which would be 11.3 euros higher. This illustrates how the gas price ceiling currently affects the market, a policy coordinated between OMIE and the Iberian Gas Market (Mibgas) to stabilize electricity costs while gas prices fluctuate.
The final average price results from combining the 81 euros per MWh recorded this Saturday on the wholesale market with the temporary adjustment charged to plants benefiting from the gas ceiling to compensate for the use of this fuel in electricity generation. Tomorrow’s adjustment is projected to be 12.2 euros per MWh, illustrating how the price ceiling interacts with the broader market dynamics to shape daily prices.
Under the latest timetable for pricing, electricity is expected to peak between 21:00 and 22:00 at around 130 euros per MWh, while the lowest point is forecast between early morning and late afternoon, with prices near 41 euros per MWh. This pattern reflects typical diurnal demand fluctuations, with higher consumption during the evening hours and relatively lower demand overnight and in lower-activity periods.
What will electricity prices look like tomorrow? The overall trajectory suggests prices at about 70.8 percent below the levels seen a year ago, with the day’s average holding at a level that remains lower than many regional benchmarks. Even with the gas cap not applied, the market appears likely to stay below the peaks observed in neighboring markets, underscoring the impact of energy policies and market structure in shaping daily swings.
Across the European landscape, price comparisons show France expected to average around 200.2 euros per MWh this Monday, Italy around 235.2 euros per MWh, and Germany near 191.9 euros per MWh. In the United Kingdom, prices are projected at about 160.5 pounds per MWh, roughly equivalent to 250.1 euros per MWh given current exchange rates. These regional differentials highlight how local fuel mix, market rules, and policy interventions can diverge significantly—even within a connected market region—while the Iberian system continues to act as a bellwether for policy-driven price dynamics.