This Thursday, the wholesale electricity price is expected to fall more than 6 percent to 456.59 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). This marks the fifth highest price ever recorded in the pool, the market where power is bought and sold, and it reflects the adjustment paid after the gas cap to compensate facilities using this input.
The price will be the third highest since the gas cap was introduced on June 15, standing at 16 percent. The peak among the record is 544.98 euro/MWh on March 8, nearly two weeks after the start of the Ukraine conflict.
Data from the electricity market operator OMIE and the Iberian Gas Market (Mibgas) show that the wholesale electricity price, paid by consumers on regulated tariffs, will be about 57 euros below the 513.29 euros per MWh seen previously. There is no upper limit for gas used in electricity generation.
The downward movement follows a statement from European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen about a possible urgent response in the electricity market on Tuesday afternoon.
The commission’s move comes after a hot August that set record prices across Europe. In Spain, the average reached 308.31 euros per MWh, making it the most expensive electricity month in history.
Energy instability across the continent is expected to persist, with high levels in major economies. There should be a slight decline in most countries tomorrow, though.
The highest price is forecast in Italy at 661.36 euro/MWh, followed by France at 635.63 euro/MWh.
Germany is projected to see an average price of 571.2 euro/MWh, while the United Kingdom is around 473 euros per MWh, equivalent to about 406 pounds per MWh at current exchange rates.
In Portugal, where the gas price is also capped under the Iberian exception, the auction price aligns with Spain, reflecting the shared market structure between the two countries.
Auction and setup
If only the results of the wholesale market auction are considered, excluding the adjustment paid by gas cap beneficiaries to compensate the facilities relying on this resource, electricity would rise by nearly 5 percent to 193.36 Euro/MWh.
In line with time zones, the maximum price is expected between 22:00 and 23:00 at 250 Euro/MWh, while the minimum will be 148.6 Euro/MWh between 16:00 and 17:00.
However, these figures must be adjusted for the gas plant tuning costs. The amount varies with the required volume and the system price, affecting households and businesses alike.
For tomorrow, the temporary average correction for consumers will be 263.23 euro/MWh. This is about 70 euros higher than the auction average, resulting in a final price of 456.59 euros per MWh, more than three times the level from a year earlier.