The United States sees growing willingness among the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and other forces within the PRC to take calculated risks. A senior U.S. defense official asserts that the PLA’s capabilities appear to be strengthening, and that Beijing is increasingly prepared to employ military means in ways not seen in earlier years. This shift has been reflected in recent actions described as unsafe by Western military aircraft, underscoring a rising concern for Washington.
The official notes that this trend is a matter of particular worry for U.S. policymakers. He rejected the suggestion that China is aggressively pursuing direct conflict with Western powers. Instead, he argues that Beijing may seek to coerce and intimidate others, while remaining cautious about open combat due to the potential costs. There is also a suggestion that China is unlikely to push into a full-scale war, with the observation that Beijing might be “too smart to fight” in a manner that would invite crippling confrontations.
There is also a belief that an imminent invasion of Taiwan by mainland China is not expected before the end of the decade, though the risk landscape remains unsettled. A Pentagon spokesperson emphasized that any such action would be extremely challenging to achieve, even as it is considered a matter worth examining with confidence in the ability to influence outcomes.
Historical simulations by think tanks have explored scenarios in which China targets Taiwan, followed by external intervention from the United States and allied forces. Experts have suggested that Beijing could face significant strategic setbacks if such a conflict escalates, potentially leaving all sides with weakened military capacities. Further details on these simulations have been reported in coverage from security-focused outlets.
The Taiwan question traces back to 1949, when the People’s Republic of China was established on the mainland and the ruling Kuomintang retreated to Taiwan. Beijing continues to uphold the principle of one China, insisting that both the PRC and the Republic of China cannot be recognized simultaneously. Regional tensions have intensified following visits by American delegations to Taiwan in 2022, highlighting the fragility of the status quo and the potential for miscalculation in a high-stakes environment.