On the morning of September 1, 1859, Richard Carrington observed something extraordinary on the Sun. As he did daily, he scanned sunspots with a telescope from his London garden, captivated by the view. He was fortunate to witness a dramatic eruption unfold. The science of space weather was still in its infancy, so the magnitude could not be fully assessed. The event released an immense coronal mass ejection into space, releasing energy equivalent to ten billion atomic bombs and sending a rush toward Earth. The consequences would be felt only after about 17 hours.
The event became known as the Carrington event, named for its discoverer, and remains the largest solar storm recorded in the past five centuries. Its effects on global telegraph networks, the dominant means of communication at the time, revealed how vulnerable early electrical infrastructure could be to electromagnetic disturbances. The storm marked a turning point in understanding the fragility of wired communications under solar influence.
It prompts the question: what if a similar event occurred today?
The day the world went offline
In 1832, Samuel Morse and Alfred Vail introduced the Morse Telegraph, a technology that would soon become the world’s most widely used method of communication. A few decades later, a solar storm would prove its potential to disrupt even this sophisticated system. Electromagnetic interference caused widespread cable failures, plunging many regions into an unexpected silence. The immediate disruption touched economies and daily life, underscoring the vulnerability of early communication networks to space weather.
The Carrington incident, named after the observer, stands as the most intense solar storm documented in the last 500 years. Its impact on early wired communications taught valuable lessons about resilience and risk in an increasingly connected world.
and ask what would happen if a similar event struck now.
similar but different
Sunlight and coronal mass ejections represent the same powerful source: a massive release of energy from the Sun’s surface. CMEs, the largest explosive phenomena visible in our solar system, share the stage with solar flares and other solar emissions. While distinct in their mechanisms, they often occur in tandem with events like the Carrington storm.
A useful analogy is to compare solar eruptions with a sudden flash of lightning. Light from such a flash takes about 8 minutes and 20 seconds to reach Earth. The energy released can influence the upper atmosphere, causing radio emissions and potential disruptions to communications.
A CME involves the ejection of coronal material from the Sun, a stream of plasma heated to nearly 2 million degrees Celsius. This plasma is ejected at speeds ranging from roughly 500 to 2,500 kilometers per hour. If it encounters a planet or spacecraft, it can disturb magnetic fields, damage technology, and affect living beings within its path.
Thanks to the magnetosphere, we still have an atmosphere!
CMEs are a regular occurrence, and they typically take up to three days to reach Earth. Fortunately, our atmosphere and the planet’s magnetosphere deflect most of the hazardous solar plasma. The geodynamo inside Earth creates a magnetic shield that keeps the most dangerous radiation at bay, helping protect life and infrastructure.
Without this magnetic shield, wind and solar particles could erode the atmosphere much more quickly. The example of a distant planet losing its atmosphere illustrates the point: Anthema, a hypothetical world, would shed the thin air at a rapid rate if its magnetosphere vanished. Mars is a real case study; its early atmosphere, dominated by carbon dioxide, was battered by solar wind after its magnetic field weakened, leaving a thin, tenuous envelope.
Without the magnetic field, Earth’s atmosphere and life as we know it would be very different.
What will the space weather be like in the coming days?
On July 23, 2012, Earth narrowly escaped a coronal mass ejection similar to the 1859 Carrington event, by a span of nine days. Had the storm arrived even a week earlier, critical systems could have faced a catastrophe. Studies estimate that replacing a damaged electrical grid in the United States alone could cost around 2.6 billion dollars and would take years to restore.
Space weather involves studying the Sun, the space between planets, the geomagnetic field, and Earth’s atmosphere and how their interactions can affect reliability and performance. Extreme events may impact communications networks, GPS guidance, electrical grids, or the health of people traveling in space or flying over polar regions. In a world reliant on satellites, power, and communications, space weather is a national security issue for many nations.
For this reason, many countries maintain space weather prediction centers or research institutes that run simulations and forecasts about when a CME might reach Earth. International programs coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization and aviation authorities provide alerts so decision makers in power, aviation, and telecom sectors can take timely mitigation measures.
What if it happens again?
Imagine a severe solar storm coinciding with an extremely hot summer. A power outage would leave millions without cooling and communication capabilities. Essential services such as food and water storage could be compromised, sanitary and health systems might struggle, banking operations could halt, and global trade could stall. GPS and satellite-dependent activities would stop functioning, and recovery could take years due to a cascade of satellite failures.
The effects could be devastating in many sectors, underscoring the need for preparedness and resilient infrastructure.
It is hard to imagine a world without electricity and the internet today, yet the risk persists. A modern civilization relies on stable power, robust communications, and satellite navigation to coordinate everything from daily life to critical services. The sun has reminded humanity that it remains a powerful, sometimes unpredictable partner in our daily existence.
The world would pause again, potentially taking decades to recover in the most extreme scenarios. In this ongoing relationship with the Sun, experts estimate a destructive solar storm could strike Earth within the next decade with a notable chance of occurrence. That possibility reinforces the need for proactive contingency planning and resilient design across sectors that rely on space weather forecasting and protective infrastructure.
Reference article: Tiempo Ciencia [citation].
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