Ukraine’s winter energy crunch and the human cost of a broken grid

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Don’t get married too often in Ukraine these days, especially not among soldiers. Those who do pledge eternal love often do so before facing the mud of frontline trenches. The news hit the Mukhin family hard, like a ship blown off course. The war dragged on and their finances faded. A bridal shop in central Kharkiv, in the northeast, was shattered by Russian bombs, while in Dnieper, mid-country, only two customers a week kept the doors from closing. The couple, already struggling since the pandemic, now live among empty racks, lights only on when someone passes through the door. They endure the gloom and darkness that have become part of daily life.

Andrei Mukhin and his wife have operated bridal shops after fleeing Kharkiv to escape the war in Dnipro. RICHARD MIR FROM FRANCE

“We are very worried for the winter, because the cold will be severe here. The electric bills are a burden and if income does not return, paying them will be nearly impossible”, Andrey Mukhin noted as he pointed to electric radiators in the shop. With no backup plan beyond pulling blankets over beds and taping plastic over windows, they are joined by many Ukrainians facing similar hardship as five million jobs vanished due to the conflict according to World Labour Organization data. The situation comes as Russia launched a broad attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in response to strikes on strategic targets such as the Kerch Bridge in Crimea, intensifying through the week.

Kyiv has not disclosed the exact facilities hit but said the attack affected multiple regions. Electricity supply was disrupted in the capital and beyond, with tens of thousands briefly left without power even as supplies recovered later in the week. “Everything is unstable. In Krivy Rih the electrical substation was targeted. It takes time to repair. We have to build new transmission lines while the substation is restored. Our teams have not slept”, remarked a representative from the Prensa Ibérica group referencing Dtek Grids in Dnipro, a major distributor in the country.

The Ukrainian government sees Monday’s attack as only a prelude to further attempts. “Russian aggressors will try to use winter as a weapon”, said the prime minister, Denys Shmyhal. The country, which had a higher rate of electricity production than consumption before the pandemic, relies on four nuclear plants and various thermal sources. That surplus is being exported to the European Union, though the flow has paused since the latest cyber and physical disruptions.

decentralized system

Experts note that Ukraine’s energy system is highly decentralized and includes local generation across districts, which makes it harder to disable entire networks with a single strike. Nataliya Katser-Buchkovska, a former deputy and founder of a Ukrainian sustainability fund, explains that local generation helps keep critical services online even when some substations are damaged. Authorities have prepared austerity measures to prevent overload during peak times, encouraging residents to reduce consumption during the morning and evening rush. Heating temperatures may fall to around sixteen degrees, with the goal of maintaining basic comfort even if it is cooler than usual. People are seeking alternatives like generators and car batteries to keep phones charged as a precaution against further outages.

Gas security remains a pressing concern alongside electricity. Soviet style apartment blocks still rely on gas for heating in many cities, and Ukraine stopped importing gas from Russia after 2014. Domestic production covers about 60 percent of needs, with the rest purchased from the European Union at market prices. Reduced consumption due to displacements and industrial disruption has helped, but officials warn that a need for several additional billion cubic meters could arise if prices stay elevated.

Apartment block with damaged windows during the Russian bombing of 10 October in Dnipro. FRANCE RICHARD MIR

Additional gas reserves

p Kyiv is seeking funding from allies to secure more gas supplies, anticipating potential attacks on deposits or the reality that nearly half of production comes from the Kharkiv region near the Russian border, which was recently retaken by Ukrainian forces. The head of the state gas company warned that without new imports, large areas of Ukraine could face supply cuts.

p>And the result of all this is a country where winter temperatures routinely drop well below freezing. A cold winter could trigger another wave of displacement toward Europe, potentially affecting up to 15 million people if energy shortages persist, according to analysts. The government is considering anti-missile defenses as part of broader resilience planning under the leadership of President Volodymyr Zelensky.

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