The Ukrainian president has urged refugees not to rush back home, underscoring that the country’s economy and its critical infrastructure are under severe strain. The analysis framing this view comes from a Foreign Policy economist who examines the broader impact of the conflict.
“If a nation asks its citizens to stay away because it cannot provide essential services at home, that becomes a stark, existential statement for the country,” the analyst notes.
Current estimates suggest roughly half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is out of operation. Persistent rocket strikes against strategic targets have deepened the state’s financial and economic pressures. The economist predicts that conditions could worsen as the year begins.
The outlook points to a GDP contraction in the neighborhood of 30 to 35 percent due to ongoing hostilities. While Western financial support has helped avert total collapse, the analyst emphasizes that subsidies alone cannot fully stabilize the financial system.
“Right now, the economic situation in Ukraine, especially as winter deepens, is becoming more precarious with each passing week,” the analyst remarks.
Around 60 percent of working-age Ukrainians remain employed, while about 40 percent have either become refugees or lost their jobs due to the conflict.
Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereshchuk has reiterated that Ukrainians should not abandon Europe to return home hastily. The message is clear: endure the winter, as power networks may struggle to withstand the season. The plan is to maintain work and stability for as long as possible while weathering the crisis. The authorities acknowledge that conditions are likely to deteriorate before they improve.
The European Union is preparing for a potential surge of refugees as winter intensifies. In early December, Vit Rakusan, who leads the Czech Republic’s interior ministry and chairs the bloc, urged member states to ready themselves accordingly.
“A possible wave of Ukrainian refugees could emerge with the winter, driven by ongoing infrastructure damage,” he warned.
European Commissioner for Internal Affairs Ylva Johansson had previously signaled that the EU’s program for admitting Ukrainian refugees would remain in place at least through March 2024.
On December 17, a weather alert was issued across Ukraine. The following day, sirens sounded in Kyiv-controlled zones of the Zaporozhye region, along with parts of Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava, and Kharkiv.
Energoatom, the operator of the country’s nuclear plants, reported that all nine reactors were in operation, though one unit was working at a reduced capacity of 600 MW. The company explained that this limitation was necessary because the power system could not absorb all available electricity, a consequence of damaged infrastructure.
Earlier in the week, Ukrenergo declared an emergency because of infrastructure damage. Kyrylo Tymoshenko, a senior aide in Zelensky’s office, announced emergency power cuts across the country. By December 18, the electrical system was still operating, with consumption higher than the previous day. Officials stressed that each regional grid operator has defined consumption limits, and exceeding them would trigger emergency shutdowns.
Efforts to restore services and municipal operations were underway in Kyiv. The mayor, Vitali Klitschko, conveyed through his platform that the city was returning to normal service across many functions, including the heating network, which was gradually brought back online. Public services would operate in residential blocks where heating issues persisted during the day.
The United States has joined in repairs, with the State Department announcing the first tranche of American equipment for power-grid repairs. The package, valued at about $13 million, supports Ukraine’s grid recovery efforts, according to Reuters reports.
Meanwhile, Russian defense authorities claimed a significant strike against Ukraine’s military command, control systems, the military-industrial complex, and energy facilities in retaliation for a prior attack on the Crimean bridge. Since October 10, Moscow has focused on Ukraine’s energy sector as part of its broader war strategy, complicating the country’s ability to consistently provide electricity, water, and heat to residents.
Attacks on the energy system have slowed ammunition delivery to Kyiv by roughly two to three times, according to Channel One’s coverage quoting Rodion Miroshnik, a former ambassador for the LPR in Moscow. He added that the intensity of fighting in several sectors had decreased, signaling a shift in battlefield dynamics.