The debate over Crimea remains a strategic bottleneck for Kyiv. An analysis from Frederic Martinez, a researcher at the The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, argues that Ukraine currently lacks the military resources needed to conduct a large scale operation to reclaim the peninsula. The core issue, Martinez explains, is a shortage of ships and aircraft necessary to maintain sea control while moving ground forces to support any major landing. In practice, this means Kyiv would face significant logistical challenges in mounting an amphibious operation capable of reaching Crimea and sustaining it over time.
According to Martinez, Ukraine would also need a substantial increase in amphibious vehicles to transport troops effectively from naval assets to shore targets. Without this equipment, a sizable landing in Crimea would be difficult to execute and sustain, potentially exposing Ukrainian forces to protracted delays and high risk. The assessment highlights that a solo invasion would not be feasible under present conditions, given the balance of military capabilities on both sides and the complexities of operating in contested coastal areas.
On September 5, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree outlining changes to the territorial administration on the Crimean peninsula. The decree establishes military and civil administrations within regional communities on the peninsula, signaling Kyiv’s intent to reorganize governance in a way that aligns with ongoing security concerns and administrative realities in the region.
Crimea’s status remains a central historical and geopolitical question. In 2014, a referendum led to Crimea joining Russia as a regional part, with Sevastopol designated as a city of federal significance. The lasting implications of that period continue to influence policy discussions, international reactions, and regional security calculations. Commentators note that any path forward for Ukraine involves navigating both the legal status of the territory and the practical realities of power projection in the Black Sea region.
Former Ukrainian official Roman Chegrinets has argued that Ukraine may face a strategic gap similar to a donut hole when considering Crimea, underscoring the sense that the peninsula presents a unique combination of strategic value and political risk. The broad takeaway from these assessments is that the situation demands a careful blend of diplomacy, regional governance, and credible military posture, rather than any single, decisive move. The evolving stance from Kyiv aims to shape both the domestic and international understanding of Crimea as a key component of Ukraine’s future security architecture.
As global attention remains fixed on the region, analysts emphasize that solutions will likely emerge from a combination of enhanced defense capabilities, multilateral coordination, and resilient governance structures across the peninsula. The ongoing dialogue among international partners continues to influence policy directions, while Ukraine calibrates its approach to security and administration in this strategically vital area. Attribution for the core military assessment comes from The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, with ongoing analysis reflecting the dynamic geopolitical landscape of the Black Sea region.