The conflict in Ukraine continues with persistent fighting and heavy artillery, even when the spotlight shifts away. The front lines have moved little for more than a year, and the Ukrainian counter-offensive from last June has not produced the decisive shifts seen in some past campaigns. Russia holds roughly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, and the current momentum appears to favor the invading side, at least for now.
The Ukrainian military faces renewed questions about funding and weapons for the coming months, the pace of Western support, and how many personnel can be mobilized to sustain operations. At the same time, there is ongoing public debate in Kyiv about leadership and the strategic role of top commanders, with occasional leaks in Western media about potential changes in command, including discussions surrounding the army’s leadership structure.
The northern city of Advika has emerged as a critical battleground. Intense clashes have seen Russia advance at heavy cost in equipment and lives. Advika is a strategic gateway to Donetsk and the broader Donbas region, a focal point for Kyiv’s efforts to slow Russian aims in the east. Observers note that Russian gains are measured in limited inches on the ground and emphasize the high wear on both sides in ongoing battles. Analysts warn of the possibility of a major Russian push in the near term, especially in the northern sector.
Kharkiv Target
Last summer raised expectations of a renewed Ukrainian push to reclaim occupied areas and shield Kharkiv from bombardment. Kyiv did achieve notable advances in some southern sectors between Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv, but the broader 2023 counter-offensive did not deliver the same outcomes as earlier operations. Russia has had time to consolidate positions, and seven months later, the front remains largely static. Ukraine has gained only a modest amount of territory this year, while Moscow maintains control over substantial swaths of land.
Russian artillery superiority remains a key factor, with sources estimating a substantial advantage in firepower. The European Union has supplied a portion of promised artillery rounds, and the United States continues to provide aid, though political and budget delays in Washington affect pace. Meanwhile, Moscow has diversified its suppliers, including a new arrangement with North Korea that brings additional ammunition and missiles into the conflict, albeit with variable quality.
Russia has intensified bombing campaigns against Ukrainian cities using drones and missiles, aiming to degrade air defenses and constrain Ukrainian air operations. Observers note that the air picture has shifted to give Russia more freedom than in the previous year. In contrast, Ukrainian forces under Volodymyr Zelenskiy have achieved some success at sea by targeting Russian shipping with upgraded drones and missiles, reducing the operational capacity of Black Sea naval assets.
Year of Missed Opportunities
Experts describe 2023 as a year of missed opportunities for Ukraine. Analysts from think tanks note Moscow’s ability to preserve momentum and push the defensive line forward. The tempo of troop movements and replenishment has been a central question, with Russia sustaining a steady flow of personnel to the front while Ukraine seeks a sustainable mobilization strategy.
Ukraine continues to debate its recruitment approach. Kyiv has explored options ranging from large-scale conscription to more selective mobilization, aiming to avoid excessive disruption to the civilian population while maintaining military capacity. Officials emphasize the importance of Western military aid and arms shipments in shaping decisions about future mobilization and the scale of defense production needs.
How to Break the Impasse
A race has started to rebuild and fortify forces, a factor that could influence the trajectory of the 2024 conflict and the prospects for 2025. Persistent attacks on Ukrainian defense industries underscore attempts to erode Kyiv’s ability to sustain operations. Kyiv’s ultimate effectiveness hinges on managing its arsenal and, notably, securing continued Western support. The outcome may hinge on the political will of allied governments to maintain support and on whether Russia can sustain its own mobilization and industrial output under pressure.
Analysts note that a potential pivot point lies in the broader European political landscape and the resilience of allied coalitions. The European Union has mobilized substantial aid, while internal political dynamics in major Western capitals continue to shape the tempo of assistance. The conflict remains an attritional struggle, with both sides seeking to avoid large-scale defections in supply or manpower while still pursuing a decisive breakthrough. Another possible scenario is a protracted stalemate, with trench lines stabilizing as in a frozen conflict, constraining both sides but leaving open the risk of renewed escalation.