EL PERIÓDICO correspondent in Russia for seven years, plus four more in the prior season, Marc Marginedas is recognized as an exceptional witness to the regime’s Stalinist shift under Vladimir Putin. He has observed the destruction of Russian forces in Ukraine as Putin has twice traveled there to cover the conflict since February 24. This Friday, Marginedas, alongside former NATO Secretary General Javier Solana, will speak at the Cornellà Creació Forum about how the war in Russia and Ukraine is shaping the global landscape and the relationships among the great powers.
Q: How has the war in Ukraine altered the international chessboard?
A: It was an earthquake for the system of global relations. It fortified the European Union and NATO. The EU responded with broad unity, and Putin did not leverage any internal EU divisions. The EU has become a magnet for Russia and for post-Soviet states, and this is perceived as a greater threat than NATO itself. The transatlantic alliance has also seen renewed cohesion, especially as the solidarity clause of NATO has stood firm after earlier doubts.
And the question of Russia’s relationship with China?
A: The partnership has grown stronger, though it remains asymmetrical, with China as the dominant economic power. For Russia to weather sanctions, it must diversify its buyers of oil and gas, with China as the leading customer. Yet Beijing will demand strict terms, given how Russia appears weakened in the current landscape.
What might Putin do next in Ukraine? Could the conflict escalate?
A: Putin’s course should be read against the Kremlin’s military and political history. At present, there is little sign of genuine negotiation. It appears he is moving toward the far right of the Kremlin, embodied by Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev, a figure tied to controversial moments in Putin’s rise to power. What is evident is that a rapid victory is not feasible, and the aim seems to be achieving victory through prolonged fatigue. The hope is that the war endures, that Europe feels economic strain, and that Western unity begins to fray.
What role does Zelensky, a leader who comes from television and entertainment, play in this conflict?
A: Zelensky embodies a modern, accessible image that resonates with Western audiences. He does not surround himself with imperial trappings like Putin. From a communications perspective, he has a clear advantage. Zelensky, who rose to leadership after a popular show, has shown that political humor can undermine autocratic narratives. His leadership styles and media savvy have given him an edge in shaping international perception, and his symbol of resilience has become a telling counterpoint to the Kremlin’s posture.
After gas and oil, grain is emerging as another critical instrument in the Ukrainian conflict.
A: Russia has employed tactics seen in prior wars, including coercive measures that affect civilian life. Food security has now become a weapon of leverage, with Russia signaling the potential to withhold grain supplies as a geopolitical tool.
What is the current state inside Russia? Could the war wear down Putin?
A: The war has already begun to wear on him. Public support for Putin is hard to gauge in a country where dissent is limited. A year ago, large demonstrations challenged his leadership, yet public opinion has adapted to decades of authoritarian rule. Signals of strain within the armed forces and government are increasingly credible, with questions about whether the Kremlin’s strategy in Ukraine is being pursued under false premises. The regime reacts strongly to any signs of hesitation, and perseverance in this conflict seems to be the guiding aim.
How likely is it that Russia could resort to atomic weaponry?
A: Kremlin spokespeople have suggested such a move would only occur if Putin’s survival were at stake. Yet any decision of this magnitude would require consensus beyond one leader, involving military channels and other authorities. There is growing commentary that the army is dissatisfied with the current course, suggesting that any drastic step would require careful, multi-layered approval rather than a unilateral choice.