The transition of Ukraine and Moldova toward candidacy status for the European Union is visible and on track, contingent on meeting the required prerequisites. The European Commission delivered a favorable recommendation last week after a swift assessment by Community experts, and the 27 EU Heads of State and Government are set to take the final decision at the Brussels summit this week. No major surprises are anticipated as leaders prepare to align on the next steps.
The President of the Council of Europe, Charles Michel, opened discussions by stating that the future of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia lies within the EU. He indicated that the candidacy status should be granted to Ukraine and Moldova, emphasizing that Ukraine deserves candidacy with a clear European perspective and a plan for substantial reforms, as highlighted by the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the eve of the summit. This strong framing underscored the momentum behind Europe-wide integration for the countries at the forefront of the crisis.
At the foreign and European affairs ministers’ meetings in Luxembourg earlier this week, participants did not raise resistance to granting candidate status. The path remains the initial hurdle for any nation seeking to join the EU. Preparatory discussions among permanent representatives and diplomatic sources suggested that while surprises cannot be fully ruled out, the overall trajectory toward candidate status was deemed acceptable given the progress to date. The consensus reflected a cautious but hopeful view that the work accomplished reduces potential obstacles.
The emphasis has been on easing resistance from countries that have shown reluctance to open the door, sometimes citing concerns about the wartime situation. The current assessment from European diplomats indicates that the status could be granted to Moldova and Ukraine, with a unanimous decision anticipated among the Twenty-Seven. The framework for the final decision is embedded in the draft conclusions the 27 are developing, which confirm that candidate status for Ukraine and Moldova should be granted once the Commission’s conditions are satisfied. Von der Leyen has indicated that the situation will be reviewed by year’s end. For Georgia, the plan is to grant candidate status after addressing the priorities outlined in the Brussels recommendation and meeting the established criteria.
express application
Ukraine’s leadership formally submitted its application for EU membership on February 28, four days after Russia launched its invasion. Since then, President Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently underscored Ukraine’s European aspirations in conversations with the 27 EU member states. The recent high-level visit by French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi reinforced that support, with Italy already expressing enthusiasm for immediate candidacy. Observers note that the alignment among major European partners reflects a shared recognition of Ukraine’s European potential and the urgent need for reform and reconstruction efforts.
A senior European official acknowledged that Russia’s war accelerates Ukraine’s path toward European integration, and that the process will require sustained reforms and parallel rebuilding efforts. Danish diplomacy at the time also highlighted that progress will be steady and contingent on sustained reforms, while some hesitant voices signaled the importance of a careful, merit-based approach.
western balkans
The trajectory for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia will largely depend on their actions and measurable progress, following a merit-based framework. The European Parliament and other EU bodies emphasize that accountability and tangible outcomes will shape the pace of advancement. The European Union’s leadership reiterated that the Council of Europe must balance its responsibilities with the historic opportunity presented by these applications. European officials stressed that Europe stands at a turning point and that actions taken now will define the path forward for integration.
In the near term, the focus remains on opening the door for the Western Balkans and advancing the six-country enlargement agenda. The bloc’s leaders expect to speed up accession processes at the Brussels summit, with North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Albania officially pursuing participation while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo are considered potential candidates. Progress hinges on concrete reforms and regional reconciliation.
Meanwhile, negotiations have progressed unevenly. Albania and North Macedonia remain the two Western Balkan states actively negotiating, though the process has faced a prolonged stalemate due to a blockade related to historical and linguistic concerns. The EU continues to press for progress while navigating regional sensitivities, with the aim of moving closer to a broader and more stable European Union.