Three days remain before a pivotal EU summit in Brussels, where heads of state and government will assess Ukraine’s path toward membership. The gathering carries real risk: a veto from Hungary’s prime minister could stall or alter the negotiation track. Even a working dinner arranged by the French president in Paris last Thursday, with Emmanuel Macron and Hungary’s leader in attendance, failed to unlock fresh financial pledges or accelerate the parallel technical work led by EU ambassadors. The key question is whether accession talks will begin in 2024 or be postponed again. [Citation: European Council discussions]
Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister, pressed EU foreign ministers in Brussels to secure clear commitments, warning of serious consequences if the European Council does not decide in Ukraine’s favor. He stressed that Ukraine has fulfilled its duties and urged the European Union to do its part. [Citation: Ukrainian foreign ministry]
According to Kuleba, Kyiv’s parliament has already approved three of four essential laws, and the president has signed all three. The European Commission conditioned the start of negotiations on meeting key prerequisites by a March 3, 2024 deadline, including appointing a dedicated anti-corruption prosecutor and advancing minority-language training. One of Budapest’s core demands has been robust protections for the Hungarian minority in Ukraine. The situation highlights how domestic political concerns can influence a wider regional process. [Citation: European Commission]
“We do not treat minorities with hostility; they are citizens, equal before the law,” Kuleba asserted. He warned that Kyiv could respond firmly if required, framing the need for action as a test of fairness and a signal to future decision-making. The Ukrainian side emphasized that compliance with agreed conditions should be recorded and used to guide subsequent steps. [Citation: Ukrainian diplomacy]
Hungary’s stance and the broader EU budget question
Hungary is not merely blocking the start of negotiations with Kyiv; it has signaled reluctance to unlock a proposed 50-billion-euro fund within the EU’s four-year macro-financial stability framework tied to the next Multiannual Financial Framework. Other linked elements include assistance through the European Peace Facility for arms purchases and the 12th sanctions package. Brussels has kept Hungary’s accounts frozen for months, though there is talk that a portion—potentially around 10 billion euros—could be released soon. [Citation: European Commission and EU budget discussions]
“What I hear from Hungary seems less about Ukraine alone and more about a broader stance toward Europe,” noted a senior EU observer. A Lithuanian foreign minister reflected that the standoff frames a clash of visions: one where Europe remains firm, and another where it appears aimed at limiting Europe’s influence. The warning remains that the Twenty-Seven’s decisions at this moment will have consequences for neighboring states and for broader European security. [Citation: Lithuanian foreign minister]
Officials from Nordic and Baltic capitals echoed a similar urgency, stressing that pivotal choices will shape the regional balance as Russia’s actions continue to reverberate through the neighborhood. A Finnish minister joined the chorus, noting that while alarm is unwarranted, Hungary’s recent months have been troubling. The emphasis stayed on steady support for Ukraine while safeguarding the union’s internal unity and credibility. [Citation: Finnish foreign ministry]
The draft outcome language under discussion for the summit would open the door to formal accession negotiations with Kyiv. Yet the result is not guaranteed until all Twenty-Seven leaders are aligned in Brussels. Diplomatic sources caution that only the heads of state and government can finalize such a decision. The prevailing message from European diplomats is clear: unity remains essential, and this moment tests Europe’s willingness to sustain or amplify support for Ukraine. [Citation: European diplomacy briefings]
Beyond Ukraine, leaders must also weigh decisions concerning Moldova, Georgia, and Bosnia, along with a review of the EU budget framework. Unanimous agreement is required for each issue, underscoring how fragile consensus can be when national priorities clash with collective goals. The overarching aim, according to European diplomacy, is to preserve and strengthen support for Ukraine while safeguarding broader regional stability. [Citation: EU diplomatic sources]
The coming hours are likely to illuminate the balance between strategic ambition and political feasibility. If consensus holds, the path toward open negotiations could be set alongside a careful assessment of the EU’s financial commitments, ensuring that resources align with the union’s stated neighborhood objectives. If not, the consequences could ripple beyond Kyiv, affecting neighboring states and the broader project of European integration. [Citation: EU policy analysis]