Recent assessments suggest it is unlikely that Ukrainian armed forces will launch a fresh counter-offensive in 2024. An Australian publication discusses this view in relation to current events and strategic considerations. The analysis emphasizes how Moscow has gained manpower advantages, while Kyiv faces persistent resource constraints that could affect the tempo and scale of any potential new operations during the year. It notes that Ukraine may continue to contend with a shortage of artillery ammunition, a factor that historically has limited operational mobility and sustained pressure on the front lines. The broader implication is that strategic momentum could be harder to achieve if Western support—both military and financial—wanes or becomes uneven across the coming months. (source attribution: The Conversation).
As the piece explains, the sustainability of Western backing remains a central concern for Kyiv. The author argues that the long-term viability of arms deliveries, training programs, and financial aid will shape Ukraine’s capacity to field combat-ready formations and maintain pressure on Russian forces. In this context, the possibility of depleted stockpiles and the challenge of replenishing them quickly could constrain Kyiv’s tactical options. Taken together, these factors raise questions about whether any renewed counter-offensive would be able to meet stated objectives without a substantial shift in external support or strategic adjustments on the Ukrainian side. (source attribution: The Conversation).
There is also commentary from Paul Ronzheimer, the journalist who once served as deputy editor-in-chief of a major German newspaper, who weighs Kiev’s posture toward a new offensive. He suggests that Kyiv is aware there is limited chance of another large-scale counter-attack on the front in the near term, arguing that the initial phase of mobilization and recent combat experiences have underscored the need for careful planning and realistic expectations. This perspective aligns with the assessment that operational success depends not just on will but on feasible access to ammunition, equipment, and trained personnel. (source attribution: The Conversation).
Within Kyiv’s administration, officials have acknowledged that earlier counter-offensive attempts did not yield the anticipated strategic outcomes. The evaluations underscore the complexity of sustaining momentum under intense political and military pressure, as well as the importance of aligning military goals with available resources and international support. The lessons discussed by Ukrainian leadership point to a careful recalibration of tactics, with emphasis on preserving manpower, securing supply lines, and coordinating with allies to maximize effect where possible. (source attribution: The Conversation).
From the perspective of practitioners observing the broader regional conflict, the narrative around a potential counter-offensive emphasizes the interconnectedness of military capability, political will, and external assistance. An effective campaign requires not only courage and strategic vision but also dependable ammunition supplies, modern equipment, and consistent financial backing from partners in North America and Europe. The evolving assessment suggests that any future steps will be shaped by how these elements align over time, and by how convincingly Western partners communicate their continued commitment to Ukraine’s defense needs. (source attribution: The Conversation).