At the end of September last year, Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to Washington to rally continued American support for Ukraine, ensuring funding for its defense against Russian aggression amid growing opposition within Republican ranks. The Ukrainian president delivered a message that did not slip past lawmakers: “If we do not get help, we will lose the war,” summarized by Senate Democrats. Zelensky managed to clinch a late lifeline, but the situation has grown far more complicated since. A law tying military aid to Ukraine to border security in the United States failed in the Senate on Wednesday. While not yet a final verdict, the failure raises a stark question: can Kiev endure if American weapons and funds dry up by year’s end?
This moment marks Ukraine’s most challenging phase since late 2022, when its forces achieved a string of battlefield gains and liberated large swaths of territory occupied by Russia. Kremlin troops have regained momentum, pushing in the Donbas and concentrating efforts around Kharkiv to recapture ground. Their push appears designed to strain exhausted Ukrainian units and hamper future operations, a dynamic noted by military analyst Jack Watling in the Financial Times.
Amid this, questions surround the dismissal of General Zaluzhni, announced by Zelensky, as well as the Parliament’s ongoing work on a recruitment law for new personnel. Without a steady stream of U.S. support, sustaining domestic backing could prove difficult for a population that already shows signs of fatigue.
Gradual military decline
Even as the White House pressed behind the scenes for a package totaling around 60 billion dollars in weapons, the final agreement did not appear instantly. Pre-commitments suggest deliveries will continue for months, if not years, but the pace and scale are uncertain. Analysts expect a slow erosion on the battlefield. “Ukraine may struggle with counterattacks by February or March and, by early summer, could face renewed Russian assaults,” commented Mark Cancian, a former Marine colonel and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The same voice warned that front lines might eventually falter, leading to a harsher peace with Russia.
The Ukrainian dilemma reflects a tug-of-war not only within American domestic politics but also within Ukraine’s own electoral dynamics. As the presidential campaign unfolds, concessions to the opponent are sometimes perceived as betrayals. In the Republican ranks, Donald Trump’s stance has influenced strategy. After the initial failed attempt, Washington separated aid to Ukraine from border-security funding, attempting to assemble it within a broader package that includes additional aid for Israel.
The first effort in the Senate, historically seen as more open than the Republican-controlled House, fell short as well. Senator Mark Warner emphasized on social media that failing to honor commitments to Ukraine could erode trust among allies and opponents alike. Washington risks credibility, a risk not lost on observers who recall past episodes where allies felt abandoned.
Europe cannot pick up the USA’s slack
The United States had long been a primary source of weapons for Ukraine, but a shift has emerged. A Kiel Institute study indicates that European Union member states contributed 47 percent of weapons deliveries through October 2023, up from the previous reliance on Washington’s supply. Even so, the data underscores growing donor fatigue and a rising dependence on a shrinking number of contributors. “Ukraine is becoming increasingly dependent on fewer donors,” noted Cristoph Trebesch, head of the Kiel study. Germany, the United States, and Nordic nations figure prominently in this trend.
Experts concur that Europe cannot replace the United States if its aid is cut. Europe lacks the manufacturing capacity to match U.S. pace. A recent admission from Germany’s defense minister highlighted Brussels’ limits in delivering promised ammunition, signaling a reality where Kyiv’s future looks bleaker with each passing day. Without robust U.S. assistance, many military experts foresee a looming defeat for Ukraine.