Experts warn there is a real chance of a Mediterranean tsunami in the coming decades, with forecasts suggesting waves around one meter high and ocean depths approaching seven hundred meters. The potential impact on coastal communities would be significant, prompting careful consideration of disaster scenarios and preparedness plans that many researchers describe as serious and urgent.
Vladimir Ryabinin, secretary of UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, emphasized at a press briefing that the likelihood is not a certainty, but the chances are substantial enough to demand proactive measures. He described the global tidal wave warning system Tsunami Ready as a vital framework for action, stressing the need for readiness across communities that could be affected.
At present, UNESCO has identified 40 coastal regions across 21 countries that are making strides to be prepared for tsunamis. This topic is slated to take a central role at the United Nations ocean summit scheduled for June in Lisbon, where experts and policymakers will discuss risk reduction and resilience strategies. The discussions are being reported by Efe and echoed by other international observers.
Within the Mediterranean, authorities have been urged to reassess perceived risk levels, as the true vulnerability of coastal populations may be underestimated. The Tsunami Ready initiative is designed to help close those gaps by building knowledge and capacity across regions that may have previously lacked robust warning and response systems.
Initiated with EU support on the Greek island of Kos in 2020 following a minor tsunami event in 2017, the project aims to expand its education, preparedness, and conservation efforts to neighboring coastal communities. UNESCO has joined forces with the European Commission and local partners to broaden the reach of these life-saving programs to surrounding areas around the sea.
The overarching goal is clear: to ensure that every coastal zone has a comprehensive plan in place to experience a tsunami with minimal harm. IOC-UNESCO Tsunami Program Specialist Bernardo Aliaga pointed out that many communities remain vulnerable and must prepare now, before danger arrives.
Education programs for tsunami awareness are built on a set of criteria that evaluate local risk factors, including socio-economic conditions, land use patterns, and natural vegetation. These elements help tailor preparedness efforts to each area so that information, drills, and resources align with real needs.
Experts also stress the critical value of coordination among research teams, emergency management agencies, and frontline responders. Strengthened collaboration and clear roles are essential to delivering fast, effective action when a tsunami threat emerges.
In terms of origin, about 70 percent of tsunami events stem from seismic activity, roughly 20 percent from volcanic processes, and the remaining share from weather-driven phenomena. Understanding these sources helps analysts forecast potential events and guide the design of warning systems and evacuation plans.