The report from the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warns that global plastic waste could triple by 2060, with only about one-fifth expected to be recycled. Titled The Global Plastic Outlook: Policy Scenarios to 2060, the study outlines a bold plan to curb demand, extend product lifespans, and strengthen waste management and recycling capacity. It projects that nearly two-thirds of plastic waste in 2060 will come from short-lived items such as packaging, low-cost goods, and textiles.
Aligned with the goals of the United Nations Environment Assembly, the OECD argues that achieving a plastic-free world will require much stricter measures. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann emphasized this during the report’s presentation, underlining the urgency of action within the global environment agenda.
The analysis warns that without bold policies, global plastic consumption could rise from about 460 million tonnes in 2019 to roughly 1,231 million tonnes by 2060, outpacing much of the growth seen in other raw materials. The steepest increases are expected in developing and emerging economies across Africa and Asia. Per capita waste generation is forecast to be higher in OECD countries (around 238 kilograms annually) compared with non-OECD nations (roughly 77 kilograms) by 2060.
Worldwide plastic leakage into the environment is projected to double to 44 million tonnes per year, with plastic accumulation in lakes, rivers, and oceans tripling—from about 353 million tonnes in 2019 to 1,014 million tonnes in 2060. Tiny fragments under 5 millimeters, including industrial plastic pellets, textiles, and tire wear, are highlighted as a growing concern within the pollution landscape (OECD projections).
Although the use of recycled plastics in new products is expected to increase and technologies will advance, total plastic consumption and waste will still grow. The OECD estimates that the amount of plastic needed to generate one euro of wealth could drop by around 16% as efficiency improves. Moreover, the proportion of plastic waste that is successfully recycled is projected to rise to 17% by 2060, roughly doubling the rate seen in 2019. Incineration and landfilling are anticipated to account for about 20% and 50% of plastic waste, respectively, while the share ending up in unmanaged landfills or leaking into the environment could fall from 22% to 15% (OECD projections).
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is linked to cutting plastic pollution, given the ties between the plastic life cycle, fossil fuels, and climate change. The OECD highlights policy measures such as taxes on plastic products and packaging, incentives for reuse and repair, and investments in waste-management infrastructure to boost collection rates and curb environmental damage.
plastic recycling
Experts note that making plastic from raw materials tends to be more expensive than recycling because recycled plastics can re-enter the supply chain without the need for new oil extraction. This perspective is echoed by figures in the plastics sector, who point out that the pool of recyclable plastic is virtually endless and can sustain multiple cycles of reuse (OECD commentary).
Some major manufacturers have already integrated circular practices. Earlier this year, a prominent water brand announced plans to use recycled plastic equivalent to hundreds of millions of 1.5-liter bottles by 2021, while other companies have pledged substantial investments to build bottling facilities using 100% recycled plastic. Beyond investment, education plays a vital role. Advocates stress teaching children about waste separation and responsible disposal in schools to prevent plastics from entering rivers and seas.
Environmental groups offer a broader view. Greenpeace has argued that reducing overall packaging use and pursuing reuse could outperform recycling alone, citing inefficiencies in waste management, limitations on recycling certain materials, and the fact that some small containers or PVC-containing packages are not easily recycled. The organization stresses that not all materials recovered from packaging can be processed through current systems.
Meanwhile, WWF has urged global negotiators to pursue a binding agreement to end plastic pollution by 2030. The NGO warns that plastic pollution could quadruple by 2050 and threaten biodiversity if concerted action is not taken, potentially undermining conservation gains.