In Brussels, a fresh round of negotiations is underway to tighten the sanctions on Russia after more than a year of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Delegations meet behind closed doors, sharing concerns and red lines in what is described as a frank and practical dialogue. The aim is to close gaps, prevent evasion, and press deeper into sectors that have largely escaped penalties, with a focus on diamonds, liquefied natural gas, and especially nuclear energy.
Leading voices from Warsaw to Berlin have urged stronger pressure on Moscow. The Polish foreign minister signaled the need for intensified sanctions ahead of a ministers’ meeting in Luxembourg, where ministers are expected to seek a political agreement on the eleventh round. As with Baltic neighbors, Warsaw argues that sanctions must slice through the Russian economy and target strategic sectors, including the country’s nuclear industry. Proposed measures involve curbing imports of nuclear fuel and curtailing new reactor investments, as well as restricting activities by key state companies that control critical energy assets. The aim is to disrupt Russia’s ability to finance the war through tightening controls on relevant players and their international ties.
The group of four allies has pushed for a year to broaden the scope of action, but progress has been blocked by vetoes from some member states. Hungary, for example, remains cautious due to its energy and contractual ties with partners that supply components for the Pak nuclear program and other Russian-made reactors in Eastern and Northern Europe. The practical challenge is clear: banning roughly 750 million euros worth of Russian nuclear fuel in 2022 would demand reliable alternatives that are not yet ready. Observers note that even if France currently does not rely on such imports, other members express strong reservations. The consensus path remains uncertain, though the bloc continues to explore a phased approach.
In recent weeks, proponents of hitting the Russian nuclear sector have found a new ally in Germany. The economy minister underscored the importance of decisive steps, arguing that preferential treatment cannot continue and that nuclear technology requires careful handling given Russia’s current position. Berlin officials acknowledge that dismantling dependence overnight is unlikely and emphasize a gradual, step-by-step strategy; any move must secure the accord of all member states, a procedural reality that shapes the pace of action.
The fall of the Russian fortress
Beyond the nuclear arena, the same four partners aim to ban Russian imports of diamonds and liquefied natural gas. An independent think tank argues that sanctions have already begun to erode Moscow’s hold, with energy revenue declines, growing deficits, and a weaker ruble amplifying pressure. Expanding sanctions could magnify the impact, the analysis suggests. Diamonds alone account for substantial export value to the European market, with Antwerp receiving a notable share from Russia. The Alrosa mining group remains partly under state control and is not fully encompassed by current penalties, raising questions about coverage and enforcement.
Liquefied natural gas shipments to Europe have risen modestly, even as pipeline gas remains the dominant channel. Analysts estimate that restricting Russian LNG could meaningfully reduce revenues, supporting the case for broader action. Estimates show that around the mid-2020s, curbing LNG flows could trim Russia’s income by tens of billions of dollars annually, depending on market conditions and the scope of measures. Lawyers, economists, and policy advisors highlight that a broader mix of penalties could target additional commodities such as iron ore, uranium, timber, and steel products, while also considering price controls on certain fertilizers unless shipments move through specific routes like major port facilities. Full sanctions on key energy players and financial institutions would further tighten the squeeze, though the path remains contingent on unanimous agreement among members and careful assessments of impact on allied economies.